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GBP/USD to the highest level since Brexit vote

al_dcdemo Posted 18 Apr.  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Support #Resistance #Economic Data #Cycle High #D1 Chart #Brexit Vote
GBP/USD rose to the highest level (1.4375) since Brexit vote yesterday before pulling back below 1.435, the 50.0% retracement of the 2014 - 2016 decline. 1.43 is the immediate support and the next one at 1.425. Plenty of economic data coming in from U.K. this week will keep traders involved.
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EURo posts a new cycle-high after ECB meeting

al_dcdemo Posted 8 Sep.  in #Trader's blog #EUR/USD #Ecb Meeting #Cycle High #D1 Chart #Asset Purchase Program #Trump Trade #Capitulation Spike
ECB seem to be in no hurry to continue scaling back its asset purchase program, though Draghi said they'll likely do so in October. Growth forecasts were revised higher and inflation forecasts lower, which may keep euro appreciation pace contained.
Unwinding of so called Trump trade is what is also driving EUR/USD gains. The pair posted another cycle-high this night, continuing its slow but steady grind higher. It's possible that there will be no significant retracement until some kind of a capi…
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Swissie may not leave the parity level just yet

al_dcdemo Posted 25 Apr. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9975, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Falling Wedge #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Cycle High #Net Short Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Swissie found strong demand near the intersection of the long term trendline that capped rallies in 2003, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2015, and the t…
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al_dcdemo 14 May

UPDATE 5: Expected result of the French election spurred a pullback in euro and franc and, to a lesser extent, yen. U.S. dollar indisputably won the week, rising against all G10 currencies. Weaker than expected inflation and retail sales reports on Friday led to some profit taking but June rate hike expectations hardly budged. Some further reaction to the reports is possible in the days ahead. Following a neutral BOE QIR, U.K. data will be closely watched next week. Australian labour force report and Canadian inflation and retail sales are also at the top of the list.

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al_dcdemo 15 May

UPDATE 6: USD/CHF staged an impressive rally in the two days after the French election and then stalled ahead of 1.01. Weaker than expected inflation and retail sales reports from U.S. on Friday led to a sharp pullback, toward the midpoint of a larger consolidation pattern. The pullback retraced almost exactly half of the gains since last Monday, briefly extending back below the parity level. This level remains the immediate support and the next one comes in near 0.995. On the upside, 1.005 is the first hurdle to overcome before 1.01.

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al_dcdemo 21 May

UPDATE 7: In what was its worst week of the year, U.S. dollar lost ground against every G10 currency. Already soft start to the week after last Friday's inflation and retail sales reports was exacerbated by the political drama in the U.S. that has further shaken traders' confidence that the Administration will be able to deliver on its stimulus promises in due time. The biggest winners were euro and franc with Canadian dollar and pound not far behind. U.S. dollar index fell to the levels not seen since the U.S. election and closed the week near the low.

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al_dcdemo 25 May

UPDATE 8: As expected, FOMC meeting minutes didn't reveal anything particularly new. Weak Q1 GDP was dismissed in favour of strong employment growth. There was some caution regarding inflation by some members but was not a baseline view. The committee also discussed balance sheet reduction which could be seen as a hawkish development. Minutes are basically data two weeks old and the market responded with U.S. dollar selling. It is Fed speakers and how they will shape expectations for a June hike that the market is focused on.

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al_dcdemo 29 May

UPDATE 9: Last week was a relief for the dollar as it managed to rise, albeit marginally, against euro, franc, yen, and Australian dollar. Pound sold off after election polls showed PM May lost some support. Canadian dollar capitalized on oil strength, even though OPEC didn't go out on a limb this time around. New Zealand dollar continued its snap-back after bottoming near 0.685. European flash CPI and U.S. NFP report will be two events that the market will closely watch this week. Both have the potential to shape upcoming ECB and Fed decisions.

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Swissie may visit 0.975 before SNB steps in

al_dcdemo Posted 26 Mar. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9875, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Cycle High #Net Short Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence #Deeper Correction
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Swissie found strong demand near the intersection of the long term trendline that capped rallies in 2003, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2015, and the t…
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al_dcdemo 17 Apr.

UPDATE 6: Better than expected Chinese data, that was released overnight, hasn't had a great impact but it did contribute to a slightly better risk sentiment. Australian and New Zealand dollars remain in a near-term uptrend while yen put in at least a temporary top. A quiet European session is the most likely scenario with main financial centers closed for Easter Monday. Some more activity is possible in N.A. session but many participants will prefer not to involve until tomorrow. That does not rule out a surprise move though.

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al_dcdemo 21 Apr.

UPDATE 7: Swissie has not been in focus lately, even though its moves were comparable to that of the euro. EUR/CHF has remained well offered ahead of the French election, suggesting some safe haven flows at work. That will likely intensify if Le Pen makes it to the second round. USD/CHF has been coiling around parity level for months now as (geo)political concerns balance out positive carry. 200 DMA offers the initial support with stronger one between 0.98 and 0.985. 1.00 is the immediate resistance and then 1.005.

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al_dcdemo 23 Apr.

UPDATE 8: U.S. dollar recorded a mixed last week. It rose against yen, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar but fell against euro, franc, sterling and New Zealand dollar. The moves didn't have a lot to do with the U.S. itself but happened against a backdrop of unwinding of the Trump trade. Focus will be on Europe in the week ahead with French election 1st round results to start with and then ECB meeting on Thursday. Advance version of the U.S. GDP on Friday will be an important data point to watch while the BOJ is not likely to stray from its course.

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al_dcdemo 30 Apr.

UPDATE 9: Story from the last week continued this week. The dollar declined against European currencies and appreciated against the yen and commodity currencies. Market-friendly result of the first round of the French election didn't impact this dynamic, although better risk sentiment usually means weaker euro and franc, and stronger Aussie and Kiwi. Looking ahead, FOMC meeting may not leave us any wiser next week. After weak U.S. Q1 GDP, NFP report seems more important. Of course, all eyes will be on French election polls to see whether Le Pen could gain any ground.

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al_dcdemo 1 May

UPDATE 10: U.S. Congress reached a deal on spending bill yesterday. That saw some mild U.S. dollar strength in the first hours of trading. There's a holiday today in the U.K. and most of the E.U., but the N.A. session kicks off with U.S. treasury secretary Mnuchin's speech and ISM Manufacturing PMI later. Swissie is trading near the middle of a declining wedge pattern, right at 200 DMA. I expect it to stay in equilibrium at least until the new French president is known. After that, direction will depend on risk sentiment. 0.985 - 0.99 is the initial support and 1.00 - 1.005 the resistance.

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Swissie to revisit 2011 - 2016 trendline

al_dcdemo Posted 19 Feb. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9875, Date: 3rd of April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Cycle High #Net Short Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence #Deeper Correction
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Swissie found strong demand near the intersection of the long term trendline that capped rallies in 2003, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2015, and the t…
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al_dcdemo 11 Mar.

UPDATE 5: U.S. dollar extended its gains this week in most major currency pairs as a rate hike by the Fed and a potentially steeper tightening path is getting discounted. One exception was the euro which gained on the back of constructive tones from ECB and less chances of Le Pen victory in French election. Next week's calendar features three central bank meetings (Fed, BOE, SNB), U.S. inflation, Australian jobs and New Zealand GDP. If FOMC fails to hike on Wednesday, the dollar would sell-off hard. To avoid disturbance, a hike is almost a certainty. "Sell the fact" reaction possible.

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al_dcdemo 18 Mar.

UPDATE 6: As widely expected, FOMC hiked federal funds rate corridor by 0.25%. It was a "dovish hike", accompanied by caution on the part of the committee and the governor Janet Yellen. Despite that, the tightening cycle will continue at a gradual pace and market currently expects two more hikes this year. U.S. dollar sold off in response but I don't think the weakness will last. Lower-yielding currencies in particular seem vulnerable as the U.S. dollar bulls will inevitable return. Having said that, the period of exceptionally low global interest rates may be drawing to an end.

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al_dcdemo 25 Mar.

UPDATE 7: The dollar recorded another mixed week. Its losses were most pronounced against lower-yielding currencies while it ended up higher against the commodity block. In other markets, oil fell as gold rose which may be indicative of traders adjusting for a somewhat weaker recovery and a shallower tightening path. U.S. Administration pulled back from its attempt to repeal Obamacare on Friday and said they will instead focus on tax reform. That adds some uncertainty and, likely, volatility to the quarter-end flow driven week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 28 Mar.

UPDATE 8: Major currencies started the week on a firm footing, particularly against the dollar. The reserve currency fell in response to Obamacare vote failure which means that the Administration will have more difficulties implementing its reforms. Euro trade above 200 DMA yesterday for a couple of hours before pulling back. Yen tested 110 around the same time but it too recovered to be back above 110.5. Pound rose to the highest (1.2615) since early February. More short-covering is expected as Article 50 gets triggered tomorrow. Commodity currencies look heavy.

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al_dcdemo 2 Apr.

UPDATE 9: The correction in dollar that gained pace after the dovish hike by Fed appears to have stalled, despite signs that U.S. Administration will have tough time enacting some of its promised reforms. U.S. dollar rose the most against euro and franc but recorded only modest gains compared to yen and antipodean dollars. Pound and Canadian dollar were holding its own, both finishing a tad higher. In the week ahead, FOMC Meeting Minutes may reveal some detail behind the March's decision. Most Fed officials have continued to be hawkish though.

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Parity level to hold Swissie in February

al_dcdemo Posted 24 Jan. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 1.0025, Date: 1st of March, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Cycle High #Net Short Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence #Eight Cent Rally
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Swissie found strong demand near the intersection of the long term trendline that capped rallies in 2003, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2015, and the …
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al_dcdemo 13 Feb.

UPDATE 6: USD/CHF retraced more than half of the 800-pip rally that it had recorded after the U.S. election. A lot will depend on politics, in both U.S. and Europe, this year but as long as SNB keeps interest rates low, the pair will remain supported. 500-pip pullback bottomed just below the top of last year's channel, near 200 DMA. The pair is now back above parity level with 50 DMA the next target. Stronger demand may start coming in between 0.995 and 1.00.

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al_dcdemo 16 Feb.

UPDATE 7: Swissie has so far spent the week above the parity level. Swiss inflation went positive for the first time after more than two years but that won't prompt SNB to change its policy before ECB moves on rates. The pair tested 50 DMA yesterday after U.S. inflation and retail sales reports but then turned lower as the dollar was sold across the board. Area between 100 DMA and the parity is the first stronger support to watch.

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al_dcdemo 18 Feb.

UPDATE 8: It was another week of relatively tight ranges. With exceptions of yen and maybe pound, major currencies ended the week pretty much where they started. There's still a lot of uncertainty regarding tax cuts and fiscal stimulus in the U.S. but inflation is on the rise and Fed rate hikes are on the way. One thing that keeps bulls cautious is the Administration's remarks about too strong a dollar and Trump's comments regarding a "level playing field for currencies". The other one is simply expectations of reflation with flows into riskier assets and currencies.

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al_dcdemo 25 Feb.

UPDATE 9: Indecision in markets continues. Major currencies mostly closed in the middle of their tight ranges. A mild risk-off is notable with the yen buying gaining traction, in part due to French election hedging. Speculators are building longs in commodity currencies and covering shorts in low-yielders bar the euro. The main event in the week ahead is U.S. president Trump's speech to Congress, in which he is expected to announce his "phenomenal tax plan". Failure to meet market's expectations could see the dollar sell-off hard.

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al_dcdemo 28 Feb.

UPDATE 10: Major currencies opened the week on a similar note that they ended the last one. The U.S. dollar started on the back foot but stormed back later in the day. Month-end flows and some position-squaring ahead of the important Trump speech tomorrow could be in part responsible for this. Euro, yen, cable and Canadian dollar have seen the most activity while franc and antipodean dollars have traded in tighter ranges. USD/CHF is comfortably poised above parity level, a continuation towards 1.0250 in the days ahead is possible, if dollar strength returns.

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Oil strength weighs on the Loonie

al_dcdemo Posted 26 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #Oil #USD/CAD #H1 Chart #Cycle High
Loonie surged through 1.34 on Monday and traded up to 1.3435. High for the year, set in late September at 1.3457, held. The oil rebounded on Friday and has not posted a losing day since.
If the commodity stays supported, the pair is unlikely to break to new highs. In that case, a retest of 50 and 100 DMA (1.3150 - 1.3200) seems the most likely scenario. Otherwise, 1.34 level will need to be convincingly broken to make a push through the cycle-high feasible.
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USD/JPY technicals muddy

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Aug. as Analysis on USD/JPY, Target: 119.7500, Date: 1st of October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/JPY #Uptrend #Strong Support #Risk Off #Rate Hikes #Resistance Cluster #Market Rout #Cycle High #Global Stock Markets
Monthly chart:
The pair broke above strong cluster of resistance (trendline that contained the long-term downtrend in years 1986, 1990, 1998; 23.6% retracement of the 1982 to 2011 decline; 2007 high at 124.14). After weak pullback in June, the pair retested the cycle-high (~125.85) in August before it sold off strongly amid concerns in regard to global growth, China slowdown, oil prices and Fed tightening.
Weekly chart:
In the last week of August, the pair broke back below the monthly resistanc…
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fxsurprise8 30 Sep.

now at 17 pips away, nice!

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al_dcdemo 1 Oct.

Thanks! It looks good at the moment. :)

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foreignexchange 1 Oct.

Great : )

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al_dcdemo 1 Oct.

Thanks :)

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al_dcdemo 1 Oct.

UPDATE 10: Attempt to break to the upside of the aforementioned pattern failed but the pair didn't decline past the pattern's bottom either. Volatility continues to fall as this week's range is even smaller and basically less than 100 pips. I'm very happy with the outcome because uncertainty after August 24th market rout made the whole thing difficult to predict.

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