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Loonie to consolidate through year-end

al_dcdemo Posted 4 Dec. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.2625, Date: 1 von February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Declining Wedge #Net Long Positioning #Medium Term Bottom #Neutral Boc
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
A sharp rally at the start of 2016 and an even more impressive reversal was followed by an upward sloping consolidation and then another leg lower. …
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al_dcdemo 30 Dec.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar ended the year on a softer note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction began to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

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al_dcdemo 5 Jan.

UPDATE 10: USD/CAD broke and closed below 1.25 yesterday and stalled there. The level is part of a wider 1.24 - 1.25 support area. Today's labour market reports from both U.S. and Canada will have a big say in whether we'll get a continuation or a pullback from here.

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al_dcdemo 8 Jan.

UPDATE 11: BOC Business Outlook Survey, released about an hour ago, was upbeat on the economy. Rate hike odds ticked further up. USD/CAD, however, is in the process of correcting Friday's outsized fall. 1.24 is the initial support and 1.245 the resistance.

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al_dcdemo 17 Jan.

UPDATE 12: Bank of Canada meets today and virtually everyone expects a hike. A cautious hike is indeed the most likely scenario, though I wouldn't rule out a hawkish hold. There should be a big market reaction in either case. 1.26 area is the first stronger resistance and 1.23 the support.

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al_dcdemo 18 Jan.

UPDATE 13: Bank of Canada hiked overnight rate for the third time in this cycle. Market reaction was messy. There appears to have been a leak which prompted sell-the-fact trade about 20 seconds before the release. Price then whipsawed in a 150-pip range before settling in the middle. 1.24 is the initial support, 1.25 the resistance.

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Loonie to break 1.30 in December

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.2950, Date: 2 von January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Declining Wedge #Net Long Positioning #Medium Term Bottom #Neutral Boc
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
A sharp rally at the start of 2016 and an even more impressive reversal was followed by an upward sloping consolidation and then another leg lower. …
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al_dcdemo 15 Dec.

UPDATE 5: Fed hiked three times this year, which is at least one hike more than markets expected at the start of the year. FOMC's dot plot implies three hikes in 2018, markets are again not that hawkish. With so much money in the system and stock market seemingly engineered to go just up, federal funds rate could end up much higher than anyone expects. On the other hand, stock market bears have become surprisingly quiet.

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al_dcdemo 23 Dec.

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar ended the week higher against yen, marginally lower against franc and lower against other major currencies. Even though monetary policy divergence is still in force, some of the recent trades have most certainly been made with convergence, which already started this year, in mind.

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al_dcdemo 24 Dec.

UPDATE 7: Next week might easily end up being the least active week of the year. But otherwise subdued periods have often proved quite volatile in recent years. "Expect the unexpected" is one saying that is useful to always keep in mind in trading business.

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al_dcdemo 27 Dec.

UPDATE 8: The dollar started this holiday-shortened week on the back foot. Pullback in U.S. treasury bond yields and rally in commodities have been two drivers. Year-end position squaring could result to some messy price action into the end of the week.

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al_dcdemo 30 Dec.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar ended the year on a softer note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction began to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

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USD/CAD appears headed towards 1.30

al_dcdemo Posted 23 Oct. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.2675, Date: 1 von December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Declining Wedge #Net Long Positioning #Medium Term Bottom #Neutral Boc
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
A sharp rally at the start of 2016 and an even more impressive reversal was followed by an upward sloping consolidation and then another leg lower. …
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al_dcdemo 17 Nov.

UPDATE 5: U.S. dollar ended the week lower against European currencies and yen, and higher against commodity bloc. If we look at these currencies from the yield perspective, it was actually a typical risk-off week, albeit with reduced volatility.

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al_dcdemo 21 Nov.

UPDATE 6: Loonie was one of the movers in a relatively subdued day. Some progress with NAFTA talks was reportedly used as an excuse to sell USD/CAD down to 1.275 after the pair rejected prices above the strong resistance at 1.2825 in the European morning. OPEC meetings tomorrow are worth keeping an eye one.

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al_dcdemo 23 Nov.

UPDATE 7: FOMC Minutes highlighted the division among officials on inflation outlook, though majority still think it will ultimately pick up. December hike is virtually a done deal but what comes after that will increasingly hinge on inflation progress. The U.S. dollar was sold ahead of and after the release.

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al_dcdemo 24 Nov.

UPDATE 8: Weaker than expected retail sales report led to a 40-pip jump in USD/CAD yesterday. The pair held onto gains and is following through today. 1.2665 - 1.2825 range still in play. It's been a catch-up week for WTI oil with BRENT taking a bit of a breather it seems.

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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 9: Progress on U.S. tax reform, better than expected GDP revision and Janet Yellen with some hawkish comments have all been welcomed by the dollar bulls. Yet the currency struggled to make any significant headway. Markets have continuously underestimated Fed's resolve to normalize rates in this cycle.

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Cable to recover after the flash crash

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Oct. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.2425, Date: 1 von December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Declining Wedge #Net Short Positioning #Brexit #Capitulation Move
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The declining wedge that the Cable has been carving out during the past two years has been pierced on both sides in one of the most volatile weeks …
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al_dcdemo 16 Nov.

UPDATE 6: British pound has been withstanding U.S. dollar strength well and is basically flat compared to the beginning of the last week. Weaker inflation figures failed to send the pair lower yesterday. There's more U.K. data coming in today (jobs and wages) and tomorrow (retail sales). 1.25 is the current bull/bear line in sand. 50 DMA is the first resistance level to watch and then the next one in 1.275 - 1.28 band. Some stronger demand could be expected between 1.23 and 1.24.

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al_dcdemo 19 Nov.

UPDATE 7: In the second week after U.S. presidental election, the U.S. dollar rose against all G10 major currencies bar the Canadian dollar, which tends to perform well on the crosses in the strong U.S. dollar environment. The yen was the weakest of the bunch with the antipodean dollars not very far behind. U.S. dollar index blasted through 100 and closed the week on thirteen-year highs. If current market assumptions (big fiscal stimulus, further tightening by the Fed) prove to be correct, this could well have been the start of the second leg of the multi-year U.S. dollar move.

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al_dcdemo 28 Nov.

UPDATE 8: The U.S. dollar appreciated against most of the G10 major currencies in the three weeks after the U.S. election. An exception is the pound which has been completely disconnected from the U.S. dollar trade and remained range-bound. Australian and New Zealand dollars, supported by yield advantage and the former also by rising copper prices, started their corrections a bit earlier. Low-yielders, the euro, the franc and the yen, recouped some of the losses on Friday and earlier today, but the U.S. dollar bulls were quick to buy into the dips. Price action suggests a risk-on week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 9: Cable broke above 50 DMA and traded up to 1.2530 in the first half of yesterday's Asian session before pulling back below the big figure in the second half. There was no follow-through and the pair was then sold down to 1.2380 by the middle of the day. 1.2350 - 1.24 is the initial support followed by a stronger one near the three-week range bottom at 1.23. 50 DMA, which currently runs just below 1.25, is the first tougher obstacle to overcome on the upside before 1.2525 - 1.2550 and 1.2675 - 1.27 bands.

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al_dcdemo 1 Dec.

UPDATE 10: Start of the new month has seen British pound bulls step up. No particular driver has been cited and the pound rallied despite weaker than expected Manufacturing PMI. That speaks of underlying strength as the pound is bought across the board with GBP/JPY move particularly notable. Cable closed above 50 DMA and 1.25 level yesterday what makes today's move a logical continuation. November high (1.2675) is the immediate resistance but a stronger one may come in closer to July low and 100 DMA, near 1.28. Initial support is expected at 1.26.

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Cable to stay in the current range

al_dcdemo Posted 28 Sep. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.3225, Date: 1 von November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Strong Demand #Declining Wedge #Net Short Positioning #Brexit
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The declining wedge that the Cable has been carving out during the past two years has been pierced on both sides in one of the most volatile weeks i…
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al_dcdemo 13 Oct.

UPDATE 6: Minutes of the FOMC meeting that took place on September 21th showed nothing that we haven't already known. Perhaps the most important takeaway is that the federal funds rate is going up, barring an economic shock. The committee members more or less agree on the need to raise the rate, it is the timing that is still being considered. U.S. dollar broadly strengthened after the release but there's some profit taking noted today. A part of the reason may well be much weaker than expected  Chinese export data that could be taken as a sign of slowing global growth.

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al_dcdemo 14 Oct.

UPDATE 7: The U.S. dollar mostly extended its fourth quarter gains against G7 major currencies this week. The exceptions were the Canadian and the Australian dollars while the New Zealand dollar was pulled down by expectations of further easing by the RBNZ. Worries about global growth after much weaker than expected Chinese export data were diluted today by the first positive PPI figure in five years from the #2 economy which could be a sign of better times ahead. A gradual tightening from the Fed that we're seeing should keep risk assets supported.

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al_dcdemo 21 Oct.

UPDATE 8: Major currencies finished the week mixed against the U.S. dollar. The euro moved lower after Draghi dispelled speculation of an early tapering of the ECB QE programme. The franc followed suit. The yen ended the week in the middle of its two-week range. The pound closed marginally higher on short covering. The Canadian dollar tested 1.30 on pretty hawkish statement only to reverse sharply on Poloz's revelation that they considered a rate cut. The Australian and New Zealand dollars remain supported by carry traders, though the former sold off after weak labour force data.

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al_dcdemo 28 Oct.

UPDATE 9: Advance version of the U.S. GDP for the third quarter came in at 2.9% (vs. 2.5% expected and 1.4% previous). The dollar jumped after the release but the gains were quickly reversed. Selling has just been intensified after the news came out that the FBI reopened Hillary Clinton investigation. European currencies and yen are benefiting the most but those are also the currencies that fell the most in the past couple of weeks. Looks more like a position squaring ahead of the next week which will feature BOJ, Fed and BOE meetings.

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al_dcdemo 31 Oct.

UPDATE 10: Sharp moves on Friday afternoon were followed by a relatively calm opening on Monday. Currencies have been mostly unwinding those moves in the first twelve hours of trading. U.S. dollar rose against most of the major currencies with Canadian and Australian dollars two notable exceptions. Holidays in some countries over the next few days shouldn't have a great deal of influence on already low participation that we've been witnessing lately. If past summer is of any guide, otherwise "slow" months can be quite volatile if there's enough substance to drive price moves.

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GBP/USD to retrace part of the Brexit decline

al_dcdemo Posted 23 Aug. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.3475, Date: 3 von October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Declining Wedge #Net Short Positioning #Brexit #Record Daily Range
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The declining wedge that the Cable has been carving out during the past two years has been pierced on both sides in one of the most volatile weeks …
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al_dcdemo 19 Sep.

UPDATE 6: Week ahead will be among the most important ones this year. Even though the market discounts little chance of a Fed hike in September, the meeting will shape expectations for whether we'll get one this year at all. Perhaps even more important will be the decision from the BOJ. The bank has been struggling with deflation and upward pressure on the yen for decades - can they finally put end to that? The RBNZ is another central bank that meets this week. No action from them is widely expected, they cut rates in August.

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al_dcdemo 22 Sep.

UPDATE 7: FOMC kept the federal funds rate steady at yesterday's meeting. The outcome was widely anticipated though there were still a lot of players expecting an early hike.  It was a "hawkish hold" with the committee sending a strong implicit signal that the second hike is not far away, barring any economic shocks. The U.S. dollar fell after the decision and extended its losses in today's European session. It then recouped a big part of the losses in the N.A. session which is consistent with a very real prospect of a rate hike in December.

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al_dcdemo 26 Sep.

UPDATE 8: Major currencies ended the first day of the week mixed but mostly higher against the U.S. dollar. The winner was the yen which approached the strong 100 level once again. A convincing break below it could send few ripples through the FX market, particularly via crosses such as GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY. Canadian dollar was the loser of the day, following through on the weakness after Friday's inflation and retail sales reports. Market focus is now turning to the U.S. elections. It's also the last week of the quarter so we may well witness some heavy position squaring flows.

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al_dcdemo 30 Sep.

UPDATE 9: The U.S. dollar ended the month higher against the pound and the Canadian dollar but it closed lower against the euro, the franc, the yen and the antipodean dollars. It was a great month for range traders while trend followers are still waiting for a real breakout (higher timeframes). They may not have to wait for too long. Contracting ranges will sooner or later give way, in one or the other direction. Uncertainty around U.S. presidental election and potential for a December FOMC rate hike should keep the dollar supported in the fourth quarter.

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al_dcdemo 3 Oct.

UPDATE 10: PM May announced yesterday that the U.K. will invoke article 50 by the end of March 2017. That will leave the country two years to negotiate terms of its exit from the E.U. with the rest of the union's members. Cable opened about 50 pips lower from late Friday's levels. It extended the decline in the European morning, to below August low (~1.2865), before pulling back. July low (~1.2795) is the next target. 1.2950 - 1.30 seems like a good sell zone.

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GBP/USD to retrace part of the Brexit decline

al_dcdemo Posted 26 July as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.3575, Date: 1 von September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Declining Wedge #Net Short Positioning #Brexit #Record Daily Range
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Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The declining wedge that the Cable has been carving out during the past two years has been pierced on both sides in one of the most volatile weeks …
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al_dcdemo 10 Aug.

UPDATE 5: Cable has looked heavy since last Thursday's BOE meeting. Friday's NFP report didn't do it any favours. The pair has posted five consecutive down days since last Wednesday. That said, bears were not really convincing so far this week as was not yesterday's (fake) breakout below 1.30. A sustained hold below the big level will be needed or else we may see a larger short squeeze.

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al_dcdemo 15 Aug.

UPDATE 6: Another quiet weekly opening as thin summer trading continues. The seven major currency pairs traded in 20-30 pip ranges during the Asian session. Data wise, we have a busy week ahead. U.S. will release inflation report and FOMC meeting minutes. U.K. will report inflation, labour market and retail sales data. Australia and New Zealand will publish labour force reports. We'll get the latest readings on Canadian inflation and retail sales. All in all, this points to a little bit more action than implied by the opening.

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al_dcdemo 17 Aug.

UPDATE 7: Many participants positioned for the U.S. dollar strength ahead of the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, encouraged by yesterday's hawkish comments by the NY Fed president Dudley. The minutes were less hawkish than expected in that only a few members felt that a rate hike was needed. Majority would like to see some more data before taking that decision. The dollar made its customary round-trip, taking stops on both extremes, before returning to pre-release levels. The commodity currencies ended the day lower while the rest of the G7 closed near unchanged for the day.

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al_dcdemo 22 Aug.

UPDATE 8: U.S. dollar opened the week with a significant gap in its favour. Weekend comments by the Fed's Stanley Fischer were cited as a contributing factor though it all looks like a simple continuation of the last Friday's pullback. The calendar for the week ahead is relatively light with the main event, a speech by the Fed governor Janet Yellen, coming in at the end of the week. At the moment it seems we'll get a bit of a dollar strength ahead of the event as the market discounts rising (albeit still low) odds of a rate hike by the Fed later this year.

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al_dcdemo 30 Aug.

UPDATE 9: Last Friday's speech by Fed Chair Yellen seems to have, at least temporarily, reversed the U.S. dollar weakening trend. Major currencies have been impacted to various degrees. BOJ's Kuroda comments over the weekend about room for further monetary policy easing made the yen the weakest of the currencies followed by the Canadian and the Australian dollars. Cable seems to be the most resilient and is down just marginally on the week, in part probably due to a lack of new sellers as implied by record net and gross short positions in FX futures.

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GBP/USD may test 1.30 in the weeks ahead

al_dcdemo Posted 25 June as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.3425, Date: 1 von August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Declining Wedge #Net Short Positioning #Brexit #Record Daily Range
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
The declining wedge that Cable has been carving out during the past two years has been pierced on both sides in one of the most volatile weeks in t…
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al_dcdemo 11 July

UPDATE 5: June's NFP report suggested that the figure for May was just a fluke and that the U.S. jobs market is still strong. Having said that, its performance graduated somewhat over the past year which is in line with diminishing slack in the market. Immediate reaction was to buy the dollar but, after few whipsaws, prices mostly settled near pre-release levels, with a slight risk-on bias. Talking about risk-on, S&P 500 futures posted a new all time high overnight, barely two weeks after Brexit.

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al_dcdemo 14 July

UPDATE 6: Big day for the pound today as the BOE conclude its first meeting post Brexit. Many expect them to cut the official cash rate by 0.25% and perhaps add some QE. That would likely resume the downtrend in the pair. A surprise decision to stand pat would most probably be accompanied by a strong hint on action in August. The pair would rally on further short covering but the upside would be limited.

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al_dcdemo 22 July

UPDATE 7: One-off flash Markit PMIs for U.K. services and manufacturing came in at 47.4 (vs. 48.9 expected) and 49.1 (vs. 47.8 expected), respectively. A fall in the services index rises odds of a rate cut by the BOE in August. Cable lost about 100 pips so far after the release and is currently stalling near yesterday's low (~1.3150). The next stronger support levels are Wednesday's low (~1.3065) and 1.30. In case of a rebound, 1.32 - 1.3225 looks like a decent resistance.

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al_dcdemo 30 July

UPDATE 8: One could argue that the FOMC missed a perfect window to hike the federal funds rate. Brexit disruption proved to be a minuscule one, labor market bounced, inflation expectations recovered, data improved overall and stocks are trading at or near all time highs. Advance GDP came in much weaker than expected on Friday but will likely be revised towards 2.5% in the following two revisions. It seems that "gradually and cautiously" means one 0.25% hike per year at the most. That means no hike in September with December a much more probable date.

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al_dcdemo 31 July

UPDATE 9: Currencies staged an impressive reversal against the U.S. dollar last week after a combo of dovish Fed and much weaker than expected Advance GDP report. The yen was the biggest beneficiary as it gained about 400 pips on the week, helped by a lack of stimulus actions from the BOJ. Commodity currencies rallied with the New Zealand dollar a star performer and the Canadian dollar a bit of a laggard. The euro and the franc also rallied strongly with the pound quite behind but still well in the green. Price action points to further losses for the dollar in the week ahead.

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Cable still ranging

al_dcdemo Veröffentlicht 12 Apr.  in #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Support #Resistance #Inflation Report #Range Bound #Declining Wedge #D1 Chart
Cable has been range-bound between 1.40 and 1.45 for the most of the past month and a half with price spending most of the time within inner, 1.41 - 1.44, range. If we exclude late February / early March dip, the pair has been carving out a declining wedge since mid January.
Helped by better than expected inflation report the pair surged to 1.4350 but then reversed and is now back under 50 DMA which is running at the midpoint of the aforementioned range. I expect the pair to stay in this mode fo…
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GBP/USD to slip further in the month ahead

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Dec. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.4725, Date: 1 von February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Confluence #Resistance Zone #Big Figure #Corrective Rally #Declining Wedge #1 4750 Level #Tightening #E U Referendum
Monthly chart
Medium term downtrend has broken longer term trendline that supported the pair in 2009, 2010 and 2013. The pair appears to have bottomed just above 1.4550 and the corrective rally that followed ran out of puff ahead of 1.60. Confluence of the broken trendline, 20 month SMA, 50 month SMA and 1.60 level acted as a strong resistance - the pair was unable to crack it and turned lower.
Weekly chart
Significance of the 1.5750 - 1.6000 resistance zone is strengthened as we add 100 and 20…
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al_dcdemo 11 Jan.

UPDATE 5: There was quite a lot of movement for a Monday right after the open. Moves across major pairs were similar with the dollar gaining against higher yielding currencies and losing against lower yielding ones. The moves were then more or less reversed. Cable lost about 30 pips then turned around and shot up 70 pips before stalling again and returning back to unchanged.

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al_dcdemo 15 Jan.

UPDATE 6: Cable fell 450 pips since the beginning of the year and 900 since mid December. It broke 2015 low (~1.4565) and 1.45 big figure level and traded down to 1.4350 lows on Tuesday afternoon. It has been stabilizing around 1.44 since then but has been unable to rally past 1.4450 even after less dovish than expected BOE today. Support at 76.4% retracement of the 2009 to 2014 uptrend (~1.4370) remains firmly in place ahead of 2010 low (~1.4230). 1.45 level is the first stronger resistance to overcome, should the pair commence a retracement.

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al_dcdemo 18 Jan.

UPDATE 7: Currencies opened the week with with risk-off gaps: euro, franc and yen gained about 10 pips, pound lost a couple of pips while commodity currencies lost 20-60 pips. All gaps have been already closed as risk sentiment improved. U.S. banks will be closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Day - that means thin liquidity and tight ranges but not without a possibility of an outsized move.

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al_dcdemo 25 Jan.

UPDATE 8: Major currencies opened with gaps again but this time around with smallish ones in what appears to be the quietest open so far this year. Improvement in risk sentiment seemed to come after China managed to stabilize its currency and stock market. Given the magnitude of the bounce in stocks, oil and risk sensitive currency pairs it seems that an interim bottom may be in place. However, all macroeconomic themes are still ongoing, so it may be too early to speak of a reversal.

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al_dcdemo 27 Jan.

UPDATE 9: With a 100 pip up day, a daily range of almost 200 pips and the close near the high, Cable confirmed bullish bias that has been prevailing since the middle of the last week. China stocks tumbling aren't that important anymore with yuan stability and oil recovery supporting the risk-on mood. Last Friday's high was briefly violated before bulls took a pause. 1.4350 - 1.4375 is a strong level that includes highs from last week and lows from a week before. 1.44 shall see some resistance too ahead of stronger 1.4500 - 1.4525 area. Demand shall start coming in near 1.43.

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