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Loonie to consolidate through year-end

al_dcdemo Posted 4 Dec. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.2625, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Declining Wedge #Net Long Positioning #Medium Term Bottom #Neutral Boc
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
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A sharp rally at the start of 2016 and an even more impressive reversal was followed by an upward sloping consolidation and then another leg lower. …
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al_dcdemo 30 Dec.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar ended the year on a softer note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction began to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

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al_dcdemo 5 Jan.

UPDATE 10: USD/CAD broke and closed below 1.25 yesterday and stalled there. The level is part of a wider 1.24 - 1.25 support area. Today's labour market reports from both U.S. and Canada will have a big say in whether we'll get a continuation or a pullback from here.

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al_dcdemo 8 Jan.

UPDATE 11: BOC Business Outlook Survey, released about an hour ago, was upbeat on the economy. Rate hike odds ticked further up. USD/CAD, however, is in the process of correcting Friday's outsized fall. 1.24 is the initial support and 1.245 the resistance.

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al_dcdemo 17 Jan.

UPDATE 12: Bank of Canada meets today and virtually everyone expects a hike. A cautious hike is indeed the most likely scenario, though I wouldn't rule out a hawkish hold. There should be a big market reaction in either case. 1.26 area is the first stronger resistance and 1.23 the support.

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al_dcdemo 18 Jan.

UPDATE 13: Bank of Canada hiked overnight rate for the third time in this cycle. Market reaction was messy. There appears to have been a leak which prompted sell-the-fact trade about 20 seconds before the release. Price then whipsawed in a 150-pip range before settling in the middle. 1.24 is the initial support, 1.25 the resistance.

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Loonie to break 1.30 in December

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.2950, Date: 2nd of January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Declining Wedge #Net Long Positioning #Medium Term Bottom #Neutral Boc
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
A sharp rally at the start of 2016 and an even more impressive reversal was followed by an upward sloping consolidation and then another leg lower. …
Read full story
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al_dcdemo 15 Dec.

UPDATE 5: Fed hiked three times this year, which is at least one hike more than markets expected at the start of the year. FOMC's dot plot implies three hikes in 2018, markets are again not that hawkish. With so much money in the system and stock market seemingly engineered to go just up, federal funds rate could end up much higher than anyone expects. On the other hand, stock market bears have become surprisingly quiet.

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al_dcdemo 23 Dec.

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar ended the week higher against yen, marginally lower against franc and lower against other major currencies. Even though monetary policy divergence is still in force, some of the recent trades have most certainly been made with convergence, which already started this year, in mind.

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al_dcdemo 24 Dec.

UPDATE 7: Next week might easily end up being the least active week of the year. But otherwise subdued periods have often proved quite volatile in recent years. "Expect the unexpected" is one saying that is useful to always keep in mind in trading business.

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al_dcdemo 27 Dec.

UPDATE 8: The dollar started this holiday-shortened week on the back foot. Pullback in U.S. treasury bond yields and rally in commodities have been two drivers. Year-end position squaring could result to some messy price action into the end of the week.

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al_dcdemo 30 Dec.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar ended the year on a softer note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction began to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

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USD/CAD appears headed towards 1.30

al_dcdemo Posted 23 Oct. as Analysis on USD/CAD, Target: 1.2675, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #USD/CAD #Daily Chart #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Declining Wedge #Net Long Positioning #Medium Term Bottom #Neutral Boc
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
A sharp rally at the start of 2016 and an even more impressive reversal was followed by an upward sloping consolidation and then another leg lower. …
Read full story
Translate to English Show original

Since you are not logged in, we don't know your spoken language, but assume it is English
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9 Comments
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al_dcdemo 17 Nov.

UPDATE 5: U.S. dollar ended the week lower against European currencies and yen, and higher against commodity bloc. If we look at these currencies from the yield perspective, it was actually a typical risk-off week, albeit with reduced volatility.

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al_dcdemo 21 Nov.

UPDATE 6: Loonie was one of the movers in a relatively subdued day. Some progress with NAFTA talks was reportedly used as an excuse to sell USD/CAD down to 1.275 after the pair rejected prices above the strong resistance at 1.2825 in the European morning. OPEC meetings tomorrow are worth keeping an eye one.

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al_dcdemo 23 Nov.

UPDATE 7: FOMC Minutes highlighted the division among officials on inflation outlook, though majority still think it will ultimately pick up. December hike is virtually a done deal but what comes after that will increasingly hinge on inflation progress. The U.S. dollar was sold ahead of and after the release.

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al_dcdemo 24 Nov.

UPDATE 8: Weaker than expected retail sales report led to a 40-pip jump in USD/CAD yesterday. The pair held onto gains and is following through today. 1.2665 - 1.2825 range still in play. It's been a catch-up week for WTI oil with BRENT taking a bit of a breather it seems.

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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 9: Progress on U.S. tax reform, better than expected GDP revision and Janet Yellen with some hawkish comments have all been welcomed by the dollar bulls. Yet the currency struggled to make any significant headway. Markets have continuously underestimated Fed's resolve to normalize rates in this cycle.

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