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Going long GBP too soon

AdamFx42 Posted 15 June  in #Trader's blog #Interest Rate Decision #GBP Longs
I was long Gbp too soon today after interest rate decision
The rate remained unchanged as expected
but the surprise was that two more members were in favor of a rate hike
this made the vote 5-3, instead of the expected 7-1 to hold rate
Gbp moved up on the surprise and looked steady
so I joined the market longs
Gbp took a dive down though, just now, I should have expected this retracement
Initial support did not hold, so I closed my longs - losing about 60K
I had already lost 20K lat night on Nzd…
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Will FED hike rate?

mrlfx Posted 3 June  in #Trader's blog #Federal Reserve #Interest Rate Decision
The most important economics data of the month from US viz. Non Farm Payrolls, came out yesterday and it was disappointing. USD fell and EURUSD moved to 1.1282. Other data are somewhat mild. So, the question arise whether in the coming FOMC meet, will FED hike federal interest rate? It is generally agreed among many financial experts that FED will hike rate thrice. One hike has already happened in march. So when will the next two hikes will happen? Will it be 2nd hike in June and third hike in N…
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The battle between Fed and ECB

megajorko Posted 5 Sep. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.105, Date: 1st of November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Ecb #EUR/USD #Fed #Interest Rate Decision
My analysis on the pair will involve several technical indicators, such as BB, RSI, EMA.
As of now (5th of September) the pair is in some bearish trend. The NFP has passed in Friday and it showed worse than expected created jobs so from technical point of view I looked in the 4 hr chart and there was already formed a channel down which means that sometimes technical and fundamental analysis are in anti correlation.
The RSI-100 has already reached level 30 (which is thought to be a level for posi…
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The fall of euro

megajorko Posted 11 June as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.111, Date: 1st of August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Fed #Bollinger Bands #Double Top #Interest Rate Decision
As we can see on the Daily timeframe there is obvious head and shoulders:
According to the BB we can see that the price has targeted the lower Bolinger which is exactly our target. The hawkish fed will surely increase the rate which will lead to penetration of the round number 1.1
On the weekly chart we can see that the average price is also around 1.11 and it is the medium Bollinger also from the start of the big range (1.08 - 1.16):
Everything which will happen depends on the June's fed's rate…
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Important data releases today

AdamFx42 Posted 27 Apr.  in #Trader's blog #Fomc #Interest Rate Decision #NZD Rate Decision
Two important data releases are planned this evening
At 18:00 GMT, we have the FOMC interest rate decision and statement
At 21:00 GMT we have the NZ interest rate decision
I am tempted to go long Usd, but I am still looking for a nice entry point -
just above 110 in UsdJpy would be good ..
I don't think there will be a surprise cut for the Nzd this month,
but there are enough signs of Dovish talk to follow in the statement
so I think shorting Nzd will be relatively safe - I will be looking to sh…
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USDJpy higher ahead of interest rate decision

AdamFx42 Posted 16 Mar.  in #Trader's blog #Interest Rate Decision #Us Data #Long Usdjpy
I missed the opportunity to go long UsdJpy yesterday
The pair was down to the 112,7 level yesterday
and offered a good opportunity for longs before the interest rate decision today
The US said it would raise rates four times this year
and although traders do not believe it will be actually no more than two raises
they are uncertain and are positioning themselves long from lower levels - just in case
To trade the release itself is more difficult
but I will be keeping an eye on support and resista…
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The usual price magnet

megajorko Posted 5 Mar. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1111, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Ecb #Federal Reserve #EUR/USD #Interest Rate Decision
Hello traders
During last sessions there were signs of strong bullish momentum.
On Daily chart we are still in oversold region despite the last skyrocket euro made (or maybe it was the sinking USD) We have just entered the 100 period EMA and it is a sign of broken resistance, so the possible way is up. This is opposite to the NFP data release (which gave nearly 50% more jobs than it was expected) so it is very hard to be sure in the technical parameters. On weekly chart we can see that the pair…
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Magic number level

megajorko Posted 7 Dec. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0770, Date: 1st of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Support #EUR/USD #Interest Rate Decision
Hello traders,
Before making a technical prediction it is necessary to take on account the Fundamental situation.
There are 2 Fundamental factors which have deep impact on the chart figures:
Possible interest rate hike of Fed and
ECB bond buying program
While the second is already announced the first is greatly expected.
We can see on the Daily chart that there is a formation very similar to triple top before the great fall started:
If we look at the present formation of the channel down and the…
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1 Comments
megajorko avatar
megajorko 7 Dec.

I have made the prediction for 1st of January by mistake but I will keep the prediction for February and possibly will make some tuning during January because it is very possible that this analysis are valid exactly for February

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Cable steady as "Super Thursday" meeting looms

al_dcdemo Posted 5 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #Boe #GBP/USD #Support #Resistance #Inflation Report #Interest Rate Decision #H1 Chart
BOE will unveil their latest stance on monetary policy and view/outlook on U.K. economy at the second "Super Thursday" meeting, which features interest rate decision and voting, monetary policy statement, inflation report and a press conference. It will all begin at 12:00 GMT.
Given importance of this quarterly event, potential for volatility is great. First stronger support is seen near 1.5350 (50 DMA, 200 DMA) and then 1.5250 (Previous Week Low). Some resistance may come in ahead of 1.5450 (Pr…
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2 Comments
fxsurprise8 avatar
fxsurprise8 5 Nov.

Boom, not steady anymore

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 6 Nov.

It went from steady to a steady decline. :)

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Aussie breaks 0.70

al_dcdemo Updated 2 Sep.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #AUD/USD #Rba #Gdp #Interest Rate Decision #H1 Chart
After muted immediate reaction to the RBA interest rate decision yesterday, Aussie resumed its downtrend and lost nearly a cent by the end of the day. The decline continued overnight ahead of and after the release of weaker than expected Q2 GDP report:
GDP (QoQ) 0.2% vs. 0.4% expected, 0.9% previous
GDP (YoY) 2.0% vs. 2.2% expected, 2.5% previous
The pair is trading at new six-year lows and traded under 0.70 for the first time since April 2009. Support may come in between 0.6950 and 0.6980 (Low …
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