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Last month of the year

Daytrader21 Posted 1 Dic  in #Trader's blog #Ecb #Qe #Monetary Policy #Fed
Since this is the last month of the year it will be your last chance to make up for the year but at the same time it can break you out as this month looks quite heavy in terms of macro data and big monetary policy decision across the FX landscape. The seasonality patterns during an environment which looks to be under the influence of mainly the monetary policy as the main driver of FX price can be altered.
Make no mistake about it but both ECB action this week to upgrade their QE program will ha…
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miriam1313 4 Dic

Good Luck Sir!

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EURUSD - Diverging Policies remain

Jignesh Posted 22 Nov  in #Trader's blog #Eurusd #Monetary Policy
The big slide in EURUSD that came from the initial move in Summer of 2014 was largely due to the fact that the Euro zone and the United States were diverging on monetary policy.
Over the larger part of this year however, we've seen the market price in most of the Euro zone's efforts, as well as the United States, which started seeing more skeptics as we approached year end, over a rate hike.
This past week, we have once again had confirmation, that the two economies are in fact continuing down t…
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Yellen's Welcome Speech - No "Heads Up"

Jignesh Posted 12 Nov  in #Trader's blog #USD #Federal Reserve #Eurusd #Monetary Policy
The USD Bulls may have been anticipating today, as a catalyst to buy USD.
However, the fundamentals gave them no reason to do so. First up was Unemployment Claims, which came in at a slight miss (276 vs 270) & then Yellen's welcome speech
There may have been some anticipation that Yellen would provide further confirmation that there would be a December rate hike, or acknowledge that the data has been coming in well. The lack of such may have been the catalyst for a spike down in the US Dollar as…
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RBA Statement Overview and Interpretation

Jignesh Posted 3 Nov  in #Trader's blog #Fundamentals #Audusd #Rba #Inflation #Monetary Policy #Central Bank #Rba Meeting
In Yesterday's blog post I wrote about a technical short setup ahead of the RBA statement. The result turned out to be bullish.
I have taken some time to highlight some key points from my interpretation of the statement. It is included in the image below.
The main impression left from the statement was quite positive. The RBA addressed inflation, as expected as it is a global concern, however they have realistic expectations in regards to the low levels of inflation and expect that may remain so…
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Prepearing the Week Ahead

Daytrader21 Updated 25 Ott  in #Trader's blog #Boj #Monetary Policy #Interest Rates #Fed
Definitely the week ahead is shaping out to be pivotal in determining whether or not the movements started last week are genuine and we're going to see some follow through or the market will complete reverse and go the other way. The Economic calendar looks quite heavy this week as we have Fed rate decision which as per market expectation should be a predictable event in the sense that Fed will hold monetary policy.
On the other side of the monetary policy spectrum we have BOJ which many are spe…
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Joe_Vulcan 25 Ott

Nice.  This has me pumped up.

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FED Timing the Rate Hike

Daytrader21 Posted 17 Giu  in #Trader's blog #Yellen #Monetary Policy #Fomc #Interest Rates #Fed #Hawkish
When it comes to monetary policy among developed economies, FED is the most hawkish central bank and today's FOMC meeting will reinforce that stance. However this hawkishness is already price in and the market is already expecting a rate hike but the timing of the rate hike is what the market focus is right now. A rate hike today is out of cards as the market probability for a NO rate hike is 98%. Even though few months back my assessment was for Jun rate hike following the 2004 template, many t…
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Up Next - NZD Rate Decision

Jignesh Posted 29 Apr  in #NZD #Monetary Policy #Kiwi #Rbnz
On the docket today is a rate decision from the RBNZ. According to the NZ Herald, Top economist believe rates will be unchanged (by 62% of those paneled) while 32% say that a cut may be seen.
One of the key deciding factors which supports a case for a cut, is the current low inflation rate. Unlike the Fed, the RBNZ does not view the underlining reasoning as transitory. A word which has resurfaced once again in today's FED statement.
Another key factor, is the Kiwi appreciating as of late. With p…
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Jignesh 30 Apr

Although the RBNZ did not surprise the market with a rate cut, the statement indicated a strong view of cutting rates in the future which has caused a sell off in the Kiwi across the board.  The Currency fell between 100 - 300 pips in various pairs.

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Trader's Library: Monetary and Fiscal Policies in 5 minutes

Nihad Posted 29 Mar  in #Central Banks #Policies #Monetary Policy #Fiscal Policy
Get to know what are the policies out there available and the differences. This makes the future so predictable.
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Be "Patience" over the FOMC

Daytrader21 Posted 18 Mar  in #Trader's blog #Yellen #Monetary Policy #Patience #Fomc #Interest Rates #Fed
The top piece of event risk this week is right ahead of us, and that is FOMC rate decision and the post-announcement press conference from Fed chair Yellen.
Today's FOMC decision it will have
broad implication on different assets classes. It's quite important to remember ourselves that this is not just about the rate decision but there are also other elements attached to this which is the
updated forecasts for growth, inflation, employment.
It's quite weird that the FOMC announcement has come d…
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Nikkei 225 - USD/JPY Correlation

Daytrader21 Posted 17 Mar  in #Trader's blog #USD/JPY #Boj #Qe #Monetary Policy #Fed #Bubble #Nikkei 225 #Balance Sheet
Last year around the summer time I've made this prediction about Nikkei 225, read more here: Nikkei 225 Will Revive Yen Bearish Trend?
Since than there have been many new developments in the market and the macro landscape has been reinforced itself as soon as BOJ has gone full tilt expanding their current QE programme, and BOJ has lunched QQE II on October last year. BOJ decided to increase its amount of monetary base from 60-70T yen to 80T yen, expanding their balance sheet even further.…
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