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USD/CHF to visit parity level in May

al_dcdemo Posted 23 Apr. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9975, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Corrective Pattern #Monthly Trendline #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence
Technical Tools

Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Swissie broke out of 2015 triangle pattern and traded up to resistance line, drawn off of 2012 and January 2015 highs. It then started to carve out…
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al_dcdemo 13 May

UPDATE 6: Last few days felt a bit like a summer in the markets. There was no real trend while volatility declined, particularly in European currencies - Euro's weekly range being currently worth only about 90 pips. Loonie (~250 pips) and Yen (~230 pips) have fared somewhat better. I think UK EU referendum is playing a big part here. The uncertainty is causing many players to postpone their decisions until after June 23rd. I wouldn't be surprised if the markets remain in the current mode for a couple of weeks before things really start to kick off in the run-up to the big event.

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al_dcdemo 18 May

UPDATE 7: Swissie finally broke above the strong resistance level at 0.98. The breakout came overnight on low volumes so I would be wary of a pullback, perhaps on the release of FOMC meeting minutes later today. The immediate resistance is the confluence of 100 DMA and 200 DMA. Beyond that, 0.99 and 1.00 are the next levels where I'd expect some selling to come in. 0.975 - 0.98 shall now hold as a support, if this market is indeed bullish.

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al_dcdemo 19 May

UPDATE 8: Yesterday's FOMC Meeting Minutes were a big surprise. Rarely do this release, which basically contains data three weeks old, provide something new. June rate hike is now back on the table but I'm still of the view that we'll not see one at least until September. The reaction was U.S. dollar buying across the board. USD/CAD, also helped by falling oil, benefited the most and broke above strong resistance at 1.30. GBP/USD on the other hand was the least affected after it rallied strongly on Remain option firmly ahead in polls.

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al_dcdemo 23 May

UPDATE 9: Apart from the yen, which gained about 90 pips on the day, G7 currencies didn't move much against the U.S. dollar today. Ranges were however decent for a Monday and we'll see if tomorrow adds to that. Some more of the ranging and choppy action in the days ahead wouldn't surprise me as the month draws to an end with one eye on the June which will host a multitude of important events, including RBA (7th), RBNZ (8th), FOMC (15th), BOJ (16th) central bank meetings and UK EU referendum (23th).

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al_dcdemo 25 May

UPDATE 10: After a fake break to the downside on May 3rd, the day the U.S. dollar made a turn against most major currencies, Swissie barely ever looked back. One cent pullback was all that it has managed in a five cent rally so far. However, the rally is getting overextended and I'd expect plenty of supply ahead of the parity level. A logical area for a pullback support would be between 0.98 and 0.9850, which includes the upside breakout point (0.98), 100 DMA and 200 DMA.

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USD/CHF to retest four-month channel top

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Mar. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 1.0025, Date: 1st of May, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Corrective Pattern #Monthly Trendline #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart

Swissie broke out of 2015 triangle pattern and traded up to resistance line, drawn off of 2012 and January 2015 highs. It then started to carve ou…
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al_dcdemo 11 Apr.

UPDATE 5: Major currencies opened the week with small gaps, mostly against the U.S. dollar, and then went pretty much sideways from there. Chinese CPI and PPI reports came in largely as expected. Yen did make a new marginal high (USD/JPY low) but then consolidated too. U.S. Q1 earnings season starts after today's market close, so a bit of position squaring in risk sensitive pairs would not be that unexpected.

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al_dcdemo 13 Apr.

UPDATE 6: While commodity currencies already had a great couple of days, low-yielders such as euro, yen and franc remained supported up until today. Positive risk sentiment finally impacted them as well while the dollar strengthened across the board. U.S. (Core) Retail Sales and (Core) PPI reports and especially BOC meeting later in the day are definitely factors behind some position adjustments - particularly in commodity pairs which have become a bit extended, technically.

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al_dcdemo 24 Apr.

UPDATE 7: First quarter turmoil seems like a distant memory now as most commodities and equity indices turned up. Central banks (ECB, BOJ, PBOC, RBNZ, ...) that acted or didn't act (Fed) earlier in the year are claiming some of the credit for the positive developments but the main driver seems to be recovering oil. U.S. dollar indeed strengthened across the board last week but another theme was yen weakness and appreciation of risk sensitive currency pairs.

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al_dcdemo 25 Apr.

UPDATE 8: With the exceptions of the pound and the Canadian dollar, which were the strongest currencies last week, the U.S. dollar opened with a small gap higher against major currencies. Interesting and potentially lively week ahead will feature Fed, BOJ and RBNZ meetings, U.S., E.U., U.K. and Canadian GDP reports, Australian quarterly inflation and several central bank speakers.

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al_dcdemo 28 Apr.

UPDATE 9: Yesterday's FOMC decision proved to be a non-event. The committee made a couple of adjustments to the statement but the message remained basically the same and there was no hint of a timing of the next rate hike. The market did what it usually does after high impact releases that change nothing - it ran stops on both sides before returning to pre-release range. Tomorrow's U.S. Q1 Advance GDP will likely provide a better signal as to the direction.

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GBP/USD will pull back a bit

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.5367, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Resistance #Reversal #Cable #Bottom #Momentum #Pullback #Monthly Trendline #Pre Election Uncertainty
Monthly chart:
Current medium-term downtrend has broken longer-term uptrend, which is marked on the chart as trendline that supported the pair in 2009, 2010 and 2013. After trading down to below 1.50 in January, the pair reversed all sub 1.55 losses in February and even broke above the big level. At that point it looked like a bottom is in place, but another push down followed as the pair declined all the way to 1.4566. The pair reversed strongly from there and is about to close the month above …
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al_dcdemo 30 May

UPDATE 9: The pair was among the losers this week as it lost nearly two cents from the open. It fell every day of the week and produced some nice tradable patterns along the way. (Un)fortunately we must trade at the right hand side of the chart and and cheers to all those who were selling the rallies. The pair ended the week some 50 pips above the pre-election levels, closing near the low.

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al_dcdemo 31 May

UPDATE 10: It's that week of the month when we get the PMIs from the UK's three most important sectors: Services, Manufacturing and Construction. As a bonus, BOE will meet for their latest monetary policy decision. Data from across the Atlantic (ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and Non-Farm Employment Change) will be equally important. Initial support (1.5250) is followed by 50.0% retracement of the April 13th to May 14th rally (~1.5150) with 50 and 100 DMA just below that. First resistance may come in near 1.5350.

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 31 May

Great analysis! Really close- less than 100 pips to go with all the volatility on the market. I think the manufacturing PMI will support the cable, so will be even closer:)

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 31 May

Thanks! That's what I'm expecting too, let's hope it plays out that way. :)

foreignexchange avatar
foreignexchange 31 May

Good analysis : )

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EURNZD Remains bearish against it's monthly Trendline

Jignesh Posted 31 Oct. as Analysis on EUR/NZD, Target: 1.5717, Date: 1st of December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Support #Resistance #Reversal #Carry Trade #Eurnzd #EUR/NZD #Monthly Trendline
Similar to my previous analysis in last months contest, the pair is still showing the same setup and looks to be bearish
There is a Major monthly trendline in place, as well as a daily channel formation, the pair has yet to break any of these significant technical levels on a weekly or monthly basis. The Doji this month further reaffirms the upside momentum has subdued.
Levels
1.8385 - Previous High and invalidation area
1.6226 - Major Resistance
1.5850 - Major Support/Resistance
1.5600 - Weekly…
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Jignesh 10 Nov.

The pair is still consolidating withing the daily channel.  Last week the price maxed out at 1.6275 which marked the top of the channel, meaning a new wave structure may have started and in progress.  Will be watching for a sharp down side move within the coming 2 weeks.

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 17 Nov.

EURNZD finally broke out of it's range to make a monthly low.  The previous comment proposing a potential new wave structure after touching 1.6275 is favored.  Last week we saw the 61.8% of the last leg up (1.58064) holding price, however the week's open gapped lower and closed a daily candle below it, negating the presumed buying pressure.  The next level to the downside is 1.5725 which marks last week's low, with a trendline near by below (as indicated in charts).

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 27 Nov.

The pair has been makig violent swing in the range of 300 pips roughly in both directions, giving the view that we may be in a temporary range.  In tomorrow's early Asian session, we have the ANZ Business Confidence which may act as a catalyst for trend development, on continuation.  For now the pair hovers around targets, but is quite volatile

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 28 Nov.

EUR CPI Flash estimate is due in the UK session today which can be a trigger for some further dowside as the pair hovers around the 1.5900 mark.  1.5920 marks the 61.8% retracement of the last leg on the 1H which should offer resistance.  Earlier Business confidence number had little impact on the pair.

Jignesh avatar
Jignesh 1 Dec.

With less than a day left, EURNZD has gapped up to start off the week, but as per the 4H chart, the upside is limited.  The 200MA has done well in capping price to the upside, above that is the important 1.6015 level as well.  To the downside there are several support zones the pair would have to break in order to reach targets, but the possibility certainly remains

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