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After referendum - Italian bank down sharply

FreeLancer Posted 5 Dec.  in #Trader's blog #Trade #Currency #Market #Italy #Stock #Referendum
The Italian bank posted a day of heavy losses, after the "no" victory in Italy's referendum that raised fears about the sector.
The Monte dei Paschi (is the oldest bank in the world, and has a huge weight in the Italian economy), postponed the decision on the implementation of the recapitalization plan.
After being known the first results giving the victory to the 'No', it took the defeat and resigned, saying that its "Government ends". It will now be up to the Italian president to decide whethe…
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Референдум в Италии

Afiman Posted 5 Dec.  in #Europe #Italy #Referendum
Для меня нет ничего сложнее, чем оценивать политические риски для валютного рынка. Во-первых, политика для меня вообще тёмный лес, а во-вторых, любые политические игры зачатую имеют непредсказуемый результат. Так было и с британским референдумом, когда ожидания были в равновесном состоянии, 50/50, но победителями оказались совсем не те, о ком втайне думало большинство. Положа руку на сердце, многие предполагали, что получится как в Греции - шум и суета, а затем всё разрешается как в голливудском…
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Italy referendum

FreeLancer Updated 4 Dec.  in #Trader's blog #EUR #Trade #Italy #Markets #Referendum
A brief summary on the referendum in Italy and what can happen:
NO:
The 'no' can increase the political risk in Italy and can be read as another sign of populism gaining ground and the anti-system sentiment that grows in Europe. And it will also mean that the parliamentary blockade is not solved
YES:
If the 'yes' wins, on the one hand it can pick up the unprepared markets; On the other hand, could mean that the Constitution will be changed in a way that opens the door for the country to leave th…
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Referendum count down

varda Posted 23 June  in #Trader's blog #GBP/AUD #Gbpusd #Gbpjpy #Referendum #Brexit
counts will get under way when polls close at 22:00 GMT Thursday, 23 June at 382 local centres around the UK. These local results will be declared as the counts are completed before being collated at 12 regional centres, which will also declare the totals for each side. There will be a rolling total so the time at which one side reaches the point of being mathematically unbeatable depends on how quickly the vote are counted and how close the results are running. It is a safe bet that from 4am on…
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GBP/USD to remain in broadly sideways mode

al_dcdemo Posted 23 Apr. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.4375, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Referendum #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Hedging Supply #Five Cent Range
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Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Cable broke 2015 low in the first trading week of the year. The pair bounced off of the support line that connects 2004, 2005, 2011 and 2013 lows s…
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al_dcdemo 13 May

UPDATE 6: Last couple of days felt a bit like a summer in the markets. There was no real trend while volatility declined, particularly in European currencies - Euro's weekly range being currently worth only about 90 pips. Loonie (~250 pips) and Yen (~230 pips) have fared somewhat better. I think UK EU referendum is playing a big part here. The uncertainty is causing many players to postpone their decisions until after June 23rd. I wouldn't be surprised if the markets remain in the current mode for a few weeks before things really start to kick off in the run-up to the big event.

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al_dcdemo 19 May

UPDATE 7: Yesterday's FOMC Meeting Minutes were a huge surprise. Rarely do this release, which basically contains data three weeks old, provide something new. June rate hike is now back on the table but I'm still of the view that we'll not see one at least until September. The reaction was U.S. dollar buying across the board. USD/CAD, also helped by falling oil, benefited the most and broke above strong resistance near 1.30. GBP/USD on the other hand was the least affected after it rallied strongly on Remain option firmly ahead in polls.

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al_dcdemo 23 May

UPDATE 8: Apart from the yen, which gained about 90 pips on the day, G7 currencies didn't move much against the U.S. dollar today. Ranges were however decent for a Monday and we'll see if tomorrow adds to that. Some more of the ranging and choppy action in the days ahead wouldn't surprise me as the month draws to an end with one eye on the June which will host a multitude of important events, including RBA (7th), RBNZ (8th), FOMC (15th), BOJ (16th) central bank meetings and UK EU referendum (23th).

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al_dcdemo 24 May

UPDATE 9: After it tried both the upside and the downside in yesterday's trading, Cable settled in the middle of the day's range and the middle of the last week's range. Recent polls show Remain vote firmly ahead but concerns have been mounting that it is not only the potential Brexit that has been holding U.K. GDP growth down. Technically, 50 DMA crossed above 100 DMA last week and the two levels now nicely coincide with May low, making area near 1.4350 a decent support. On the upside, 1.4660 (May 19th high) is followed by 1.4770 (May high, 200 DMA) and then 1.4880 (50.0% retracement).

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al_dcdemo 1 June

UPDATE 10: Cable staged an impressive outside day reversal yesterday. A Brexit poll showing Leave ahead was touted as a culprit. The pair traded up to 1.4640 in Asian session but then fell all the way to 1.4465 in European and N.A. session, closing near the low. It was unable to rally today, despite an improvement in Manufacturing PMI. If it manages to hold below 1.45, further downside is likely with the first target 1.44 (50 DMA) and then 1.4325 - 1.4350 (May low, 100 DMA). 1.45 is the initial resistance and then 1.4565 (yesterday's European session low, also 2015 low).

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Greek deal closer

al_dcdemo Updated 13 July  in #Trader's blog #EU #GBP/JPY #Fundamentals #Greece #Referendum #H1 Chart #Third Bailout
It seems that a deal was reached between EU and Greece, but it is still subject to approval from the Greek government. The conditions for the third bailout are much harsher than those rejected by the Greek people on the referendum and even if the government approves them, that by any means won't be the end of the story.
Now that some uncertainty is out of the way, currencies appear to be returning back to trading fundamentals. EUR/USD sold off while GBP/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF rallied. In line …
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Greeks voting 'oxi' = no, at referendum today

AdamFx42 Posted 5 July  in #Trader's blog #EUR/USD #Greece #Referendum
The Greek referendum almost certainly will have a 'no' vote outcome\
With almost all the votes counted now, the 'no's' represent 62% of the votes
It means that Greece has refused any further loans from the IMF and ECB,
and will probably be left to its own devices, sooner or later
Unless some kind of deal is made with Greece soon, they will be out of the Eurozone too
The Eur/Usd is set to open (much) lower (again), like last week when the deal failed
This time though, it will probably not recover…
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EUR v.s. Greksit

McWallt Updated 6 July  in #Trader's blog #EUR #Greece #Independence Day #Referendum #Greksit
Сегодня грекам предстоит решить, следует ли правительству Греции принять фискальные меры, предложенные Европейским Союзом, Международным валютным фондом и Европейским центральным банком или нет.
Парламент Греции поддержал предложение премьер-министра и 178 из 300 депутатов проголосовали за предложение, представители правящей коалиции, состоящей из …
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McWallt 5 July

По состоянию на 21:40

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Leaving the Euro for what it is

AdamFx42 Posted 4 July  in #Trader's blog #AUD #Euro #Greece #Referendum #Interest Rate Decision
The Greek problem seems like it is going to drag on foreever
So, I am staying out of any Eur trades for now
I, like a lot of traders, have no idea any more what way Eur/Usd is heading
When markets open again I will be concentrating on buying Aud,
the RBA interest decision is Tuesday morning
and most banks believe the interest rate will be left on hold
Aud/Usd is very low at the moment
and I see a cause for longs Aud/Usd targeting (maybe) 0.78 and higher
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EURo continues lower

al_dcdemo Posted 1 July  in #Trader's blog #EUR/USD #Greece #Referendum #Weekly Support 1 #100 Dma #H1 Chart
There were some headlines in the morning that were implying possibility of an early deal between Greece and creditors, but the optimism quickly faded and it seems that we'll have to wait until Sunday's referendum before negotiations will continue.
Euro has now retraced more than 61.8% of the Monday's rally. It is currently trading just above 100 DMA (~1.1050), a part of the support band which includes March/April range top (1.1035 - 1.1050) and Weekly Support 1 (~1.1060). If it breaks and holds …
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