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Kiwi to test the upside in June

al_dcdemo Posted 27 May as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.7125, Date: 3 von July, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Rejection #Range Trading #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Neutral Rbnz
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Kiwi bottomed in August 2015 and traded in a rising channel until February. It recently confirmed the 0.685 - 0.745 range as 2015 - 2016 support/res…
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al_dcdemo 10 June

UPDATE 5: It was a mixed week for the U.S. dollar. The No.1 reserve currency finally got some traction against European currencies. Dovish ECB and U.K. voters, going against PM May's and indeed market expectations, contributed fundamental background for the technical weakness to play out. The dollar was flat against yen and the Canadian dollar but it fell short compared to the Antipodean currencies. Next week brings four major central bank meetings, namely Fed, SNB, BOE and BOJ. The Fed is widely expected to hike interest rate corridor by further 25 basis points.

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al_dcdemo 15 June

UPDATE 6: The FOMC was surprisingly hawkish yesterday. They hiked federal funds rate by 25 basis points, as expected, and outlined strategy for reducing their balance sheet. FOMC chair Yellen told reporters that the balance sheet adjustment could begin "relatively soon". Just a couple of hours before the FOMC decision, both inflation and retail sales reports came in weak and markets sold U.S. dollar on speculation that the FOMC will postpone hiking until data improves. The dollar recovered and followed through today.

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al_dcdemo 16 June

UPDATE 7: Kiwi has been on a quite a bull run since mid May. U.S. dollar weakness appears to have been the main driver. The pair has posted four consecutive green weeks and surged above the channel trendline on Wednesday. Those prices were not sustained and Kiwi pulled back sharply. A period of consolidation and/or correction seems to be the most likely scenario. 0.7170 - 0.72 is the immediate support band. 0.7225 - 0.7250 is the resistance.

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al_dcdemo 22 June

UPDATE 8: RBNZ held the official cash rate at 1.75%. Rate statement was little changed. Both wages and inflation are expected to increase gradually. Monetary policy is to remain accommodative for a considerable period. Comment on New Zealand dollar was softer than many expected. Kiwi jumped about half a cent after the release and stabilized near 0.725 in following hours. Month's high near 0.7325 is the next target and then year's high at 0.7375. Strong support area at 0.7175 - 0.72 should continue to hold if buyers are to remain in control.

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al_dcdemo 24 June

UPDATE 9: Currency markets were relatively sedate this week. Major pairs traded in 100-pip ranges with the exception of Cable whose range exceeded two cents. With no big events on the agenda until September, it's possible that we'll be seeing somewhat slower activity throughout the summer. That said, there's always opportunity in at least some pairs and timeframes, and we must always expect the unexpected. Central bank speakers will continue to dominate in the week ahead and markets will be positioning for their next moves in the coming weeks.

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Swissie to continue range trading

al_dcdemo Posted 27 Sep. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9675, Date: 1 von November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Rejection #Corrective Pattern #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Swissie broke out of 2015 triangle pattern and traded up to the resistance line, drawn off of 2012 and 2015 highs. It then started to carve out a c…
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al_dcdemo 13 Oct.

UPDATE 5: Minutes of the FOMC meeting that took place on September 21th showed nothing that we haven't already known. Perhaps the most important takeaway is that the federal funds rate is going up, barring an economic shock. The committee members more or less agree on the need to raise the rate, it is the timing that is still being considered. The U.S. dollar broadly strengthened after the release but there's some profit taking noted today. A part of the reason may well be much weaker than expected  Chinese export data that could be taken as a sign of slowing global growth.

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al_dcdemo 14 Oct.

UPDATE 6: The U.S. dollar mostly extended its fourth quarter gains against G7 major currencies this week. The exceptions were the Canadian and the Australian dollars while the New Zealand dollar was pulled down by expectations of further easing by the RBNZ. Worries about global growth after much weaker than expected Chinese export data were diluted today by the first positive PPI figure in five years from the #2 economy which could be a sign of better times ahead. The gradual tightening from the Fed that we're seeing should keep risk assets supported.

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al_dcdemo 21 Oct.

UPDATE 7: Major currencies finished the week mixed against the U.S. dollar. The euro moved lower after Draghi dispelled speculation of an early tapering of the ECB asset purchases. The franc followed suit. The yen ended the week in the middle of its two-week range. The pound closed marginally higher on short covering. The Canadian dollar tested 1.30 on pretty hawkish statement only to reverse sharply on Poloz's revelation that they considered a rate cut. The Australian and New Zealand dollars remain supported by carry traders, though the former sold off after weak labour force data.

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al_dcdemo 28 Oct.

UPDATE 8: Advance version of the U.S. GDP for the third quarter came in at 2.9% (vs. 2.5% expected and 1.4% previous). The dollar jumped after the release but the gains were quickly reversed. Selling has just been intensified after the news came out that the FBI reopened Hillary Clinton investigation. European currencies and the yen are benefiting the most but those are also the currencies that fell the most in the past couple of weeks. Looks more like a position squaring ahead of the next week which will feature BOJ, Fed and BOE meetings.

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al_dcdemo 31 Oct.

UPDATE 9: Sharp moves on Friday afternoon were followed by a relatively calm opening on Monday. Currencies have been mostly unwinding those moves in the first twelve hours of trading. The U.S. dollar rose against most of the major currencies with Canadian and Australian dollars notable exceptions. Holidays in some countries over the next few days shouldn't have a great deal of influence on already low participation that we've been witnessing lately. If past summer is of any guide, otherwise "slow" months can be quite volatile if there's enough substance to drive price moves.

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Singapore Dollar Downtrend Rejected

fxsurprise8 Posted 31 Aug. as Analysis on USD/SGD, Target: 1.3618, Date: 3 von October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #SGD #USD #USD/SGD #Fomc #Rejection #Singapore Dollar #Downtrend #Jackson Hole #Range Box
For a third time this year, the downtrend in the USD/SGD has been rejected. On the chart below we marked these 3 rejections with smaller rectangles. This rejection forces the pair back into its range. The general area of support is around 1.3300 to 1.3350. On the top side, the resistance is around 1.3800 to 1.3841.
This particular range has been unbroken since March of this year. But the USD/SGD has been trading undecided for over a year now. Let's take a look at this range on the weekly chart. …
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fxsurprise8 29 Sep.

The USD/SGD is still inside that 1.3300 - 1.3800 range. This month we hit a high of 1.3697 and a low of 1.3434 as prices fluctuated in an even smaller rectangle.

But despite the ups and down we're now quoted at 1.3639,  only 21 pips away from my forecast. So far everything is going according to plan.

Let's hope for a calm month end so prices stay near where they are.

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fxsurprise8 30 Sep.

Another range-bound day in the Singapore Dollar. Today we opened at 1.3640 then rallied to a high of 1.3665. This is below the monthly high as prices have been subdued by the selling at resistance.

From here we fell back down on general US Dollar weakness and a low of 1.3621 was hit. We're currently quoted at 1.3627, close to the daily lows and only 9 pips away from my forecasted price.

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fxsurprise8 1 Oct.

Time for a chart update!  The USD/SGD is still inside the 1.3300 - 1.3800 range noted in my original post. This month we hit a high of 1.3697 and a low of 1.3434 as prices traded in an even smaller range.

We closed on Friday at 1.3619, only 1 pip away from my forecasted price! This shows just how range-bound this pair has traded lately.

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fxsurprise8 3 Oct.

The USD/SGD is edging higher today. We opened the new week at 1.3618 and from here prices rallied to a high of 1.3644

The pair is currently quoted at 1.3640, 22 pips from my target. Let's hope for some help from the coming Monday session. The start of the week can be slow and frequently leads to a reversal of these opening moves.

The Monday European session could be even slower then usual tomorrow as Germany celebrates Unity day. Hopefully these circumstances will help keep prices firmly anchored close to my forecasted price. 

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fxsurprise8 4 Oct.

Time for a final update. The USD/SGD was quoted at 1.36441 at 12:00 on October 3rd. This is 26.1 pips or 0.192% away from my target.

On our chart above we can see that after the rejection on the downside, the pair stayed within the confines of the range noted in my original post (1.3300 - 1.3800). The area marked with a rectangle shows the price action during September.

The high during this month was 1.3697 while the low was at 1.3434. The open to close range was even smaller at 22 pips. This underscores how range-bound the USD/SGD has been trading lately and confirms my initial forecast.

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Swissie to continue sideways trading

al_dcdemo Posted 21 Aug. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9725, Date: 3 von October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Rejection #Corrective Pattern #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Swissie broke out of 2015 triangle pattern and traded up to the resistance line, drawn off of 2012 and 2015 highs. It then started to carve out a c…
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al_dcdemo 19 Sep.

UPDATE 6: Week ahead will be among the most important ones this year. Even though the market discounts little chance of a Fed hike in September, the meeting will shape expectations for whether we'll get one this year at all. Perhaps even more important will be the decision from the BOJ. The bank has been struggling with deflation and upward pressure on the yen for decades - can they finally put end to that? RBNZ is another central bank that meets this week. No action from them is widely expected, after they cut rates in August.

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al_dcdemo 22 Sep.

UPDATE 7: FOMC kept the federal funds rate steady at yesterday's meeting. This outcome was widely anticipated though there were still a lot of players expecting an early hike.  It was a "hawkish hold" with the committee sending a strong implicit signal that the second hike is not far away, barring any economic shocks. The U.S. dollar fell after the decision and extended its losses in today's European session. It then recouped a big part of the losses in the N.A. session which is consistent with a very real prospect of a rate hike in December.

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al_dcdemo 26 Sep.

UPDATE 8: Currencies ended the first day of the week mixed but mostly higher against the U.S. dollar. The winner was the yen which approached the strong 100 level once again. A convincing break below it could send few ripples through the FX market, particularly via crosses such as GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY. Canadian dollar was the loser of the day, following through on the weakness after Friday's inflation and retail sales reports. Market focus is now turning to the U.S. elections. It's also the last week of the quarter so we may well witness some heavy position squaring flows.

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al_dcdemo 30 Sep.

UPDATE 9: The U.S. dollar ended the month higher against the pound and the Canadian dollar but it closed lower against the euro, the franc, the yen and the antipodean dollars. It was a great month for range traders while trend followers are still waiting for a real breakout (higher timeframes). They may not have to wait for too long. Contracting ranges will sooner or later give way, in one or the other direction. Uncertainty around U.S. presidental election and potential for a December FOMC rate hike should keep the dollar supported in the Q4.

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al_dcdemo 3 Oct.

UPDATE 10: Contrary to expectations of many market participants, September turned out to be a mostly sideways month. One reason were certainly central banks, namely the Fed and the BOJ, and lack of action on their part. There was nothing new from the SNB, though there were a couple of occasions where they have likely intervened in the market to prevent the franc to strengthen. All in all, I think my prediction was good. I didn't quite catch the price path but the sideways nature of the market helped the price end the forecast period near the target.

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Swissie to remain supported

al_dcdemo Posted 26 July as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9975, Date: 1 von September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Rejection #Corrective Pattern #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Swissie broke out of 2015 triangle pattern and traded up to the resistance line, drawn off of 2012 and 2015 highs. It then started to carve out a co…
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al_dcdemo 8 Aug.

UPDATE 5: Major currencies mostly remained in Friday's ranges which were a result of a much better than expected U.S. jobs and wages report. The least action was in the euro while the yen and the antipodean dollars performed better. Today's markets were reminiscent of subdued summer trading but, as we have seen multiple times in recent months, they never lasted more than a couple of days. I think we won't need to wait until Yellen's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium to get the next big move.

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al_dcdemo 15 Aug.

UPDATE 6: Another subdued weekly opening as thin summer trading continues. The seven major currency pairs traded in 20-30 pip ranges during the Asian session. Data wise, we have a busy week ahead. U.S. will release inflation report and FOMC meeting minutes. U.K. will report inflation, labour market and retail sales data. Australia and New Zealand will publish labour force reports. We'll get the latest readings on Canadian inflation and retail sales. All this points to a little bit more action than implied by the opening.

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al_dcdemo 17 Aug.

UPDATE 7: Many participants positioned for the U.S. dollar strength ahead of the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, encouraged by yesterday's hawkish comments by NY Fed president Dudley. The minutes were less hawkish than expected in that only a few members felt that a rate hike was needed. Majority would like to see some more data before taking that decision. The dollar made its customary round-trip, taking stops on both extremes, before returning to pre-release levels. The commodity currencies ended the day lower while the rest of the G7 closed near unchanged for the day.

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al_dcdemo 22 Aug.

UPDATE 8: U.S. dollar opened the week with a significant gap in its favour. Weekend comments by the Fed's Stanley Fischer were cited as a contributing factor though it all looks like a simple continuation of the last Friday's pullback/reversal. The calendar for the week ahead is relatively light with the main event, a speech by the Fed governor Janet Yellen, coming in at the end of the week. At the moment it seems we'll get a bit of a dollar strength ahead of the event as the market discounts rising (albeit still low) odds of a rate hike by the Fed later this year.

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al_dcdemo 30 Aug.

UPDATE 9: Last Friday's speech by Fed Chair Yellen seems to have, at least temporarily, reversed the U.S. dollar weakening trend. Major currencies have been impacted to various degrees. BOJ's Kuroda comments over the weekend about room for further monetary policy action made the yen the weakest of the currencies followed by the Canadian and the Australian dollars. Cable seems to be the most resilient and is down just marginally on the week, in part probably due to lack of new sellers as implied by record net and gross short positions in FX futures.

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Will Brexit push USD/CHF above parity?

al_dcdemo Posted 25 June as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9925, Date: 1 von August, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Rejection #Corrective Pattern #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart

Swissie broke out of 2015 triangle pattern and traded up to the resistance line, drawn off of 2012 and 2015 highs. It then started to carve out a c…
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al_dcdemo 13 July

UPDATE 5: Swissie rose about 200 pips over the past two weeks, reflecting better risk sentiment as Brexit worries subsided. SNB stand ready to intervene whenever they deem necessary. Latest U.S. labour market figures were helpful too. The pair is now holding above 0.98 and 200 DMA (~0.9850). The area between the levels is the initial support ahead of 50 DMA and 100 DMA near 0.9750. 0.99, May high (~0.9950) and parity (1.00) are the next targets.

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al_dcdemo 25 July

UPDATE 6: Swissie is struggling to maintain foothold above 200 DMA. I closed above it four times last week but upper tails on daily candles are suggesting substantial supply coming in ahead of 0.99 level. If the level gives way, 0.9950 (May high) is the next target before parity. Trendline drawn off of November and January highs is currently running at 1.01. A half-cent area above 50 DMA shall hold, if the uptrend is to continue.

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al_dcdemo 29 July

UPDATE 7: Swissie lost more than 150 pips since Wednesday's FOMC decision to keep federal funds rate steady. The pair has convincingly broken below 200 DMA and is currently holding south of pivotal 0.98 level, just above the important 50 DMA. If the moving average gives way, there's more at 100 DMA near 0.9750 ahead of July low (~0.9685). 0.9850 - 0.99 now looks like a decent sell zone.

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al_dcdemo 30 July

UPDATE 8: One could argue that the FOMC missed a perfect window to hike the federal funds rate. Brexit disruption proved to be minuscule, labor market bounced, inflation expectations recovered, data improved overall and stocks are trading at or near all time highs. Advance GDP came in much weaker than expected on Friday but will likely be revised towards 2.5% in the following two revisions. It seems that "gradually and cautiously" means one 0.25% hike per year at the most. That means no hike in September with December a much more probable date.

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al_dcdemo 31 July

UPDATE 9: Currencies staged an impressive reversal against the U.S. dollar last week after a combo of dovish Fed and much weaker than expected Advance GDP print. The yen was the biggest beneficiary as it gained around 400 pips on the week, helped by a lack of stimulus actions from the BOJ. Commodity currencies rallied with the New Zealand dollar a star performer and the Canadian dollar a bit of a laggard. The euro and the franc also rallied strongly with the pound quite behind but still well in the green. Price action points to further losses for the dollar in the week ahead.

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Swissie rallies after a fake breakout

al_dcdemo Aktualisierte 5 May  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #USD/CHF #Rejection #Us Dollar Index #D1 Chart
Swissie has rallied almost 250 pips since Tuesday when U.S. dollar demand kicked in across the board. Prices below 0.95 were sharply rejected as was the break lower in the U.S. dollar index.
The pair is now back above both monthly trendline that capped 2003 - 2015 downtrend and 2011 - 2015 trendline. 50 DMA and 0.9750 are the first stronger resistance levels to keep an eye on.
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Aussie rejects prices below 0.70

al_dcdemo Veröffentlicht 11 Sep.  in #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #AUD/USD #Fomc Meeting #Rejection #H1 Chart #Weekly Close
Aussie posted a weekly close below 0.70 level on Friday, September 4th, what was not seen since March 2009. After tight consolidation on Monday, September 7th, the pair turned back higher and rallied more than 150 pips from the lows. Another attempt at sub 0.70 prices was promptly rejected and the pair so far traded up to 0.71.
There may be deeper correction in the cards, especially if the Fed doesn't hike at the next week's FOMC meeting. Demand is likely to start coming in at 0.70 and below. In…
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Rejection

Atashi_Tada Aktualisierte 6 July  in #Miss Dukascopy 2013 #Rejection
1. Do you believe that rejection is it best way to make someone hooked? And if yes - for whom it is working better - girls or boys?2. If you are in a relationships now, has anyone of you somehow rejected the other before you started dating?Video inside - one of my favourite songs with great video about the REJECTION Despite the subject it is super positive. Enjoy!
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