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1.25 - 1.255 caps EUR/USD for now

al_dcdemo Publicado 23 Feb  en #Trader's blog #Support #Resistance #EUR/USD #Rising Channel #Falling Trendline #W1 Chart
EUR/USD has been deflected three times in the falling 2008 - 2018 trendline zone near 1.25. The pair is however well entrenched in the rising 2017 - 2018 channel. We'll need to get below the 1.20 - 1.21 area on a sustained basis before we can begin to talk about a trend change.
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AUD/CHF is bearish inside a rising channel

mrlfx Publicado 30 Nov como análisis en AUD/CHF, Objetivo: 0.7412, Fecha: 2 de Enero, 12:00 GMT  en #Technical analysis #AUD/CHF #Fibonacci Retracement Levels #Rising Channel #Sma200 #Elliot Waves #Sar
AUD/CHF is at the start of wave 4 of the 1-2-3-4-5 Implulsive Elliot Waves. The pair is supported by 61.8% (0.7470) fibonacci retracement level. The pair likely will rise to 50% (0.7528) level and then fall.
SMA 200 is above the current price and is falling in day Chart.
ADX seems exhausted and the trend strength is faltering.So, its likely the price movement will be lesser.
Main Fibonacci Retracement Levels are
0% (0.7774)
23.6% (0.7658)
38.2% (0.7586)
50% (0.7528)
61.8% (0.7470)
100% (0.7282)
…
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LIGHT.CMD/USD | FURTHER RISE ON THE CHARTS

killer195175 Publicado 13 Nov como análisis en LIGHT.CMD/USD, Objetivo: 61.50, Fecha: 2 de Enero, 12:00 GMT  en #Technical analysis #Trendline #Rise #Rising Channel #Light CMD/USD
Technical Tools
Resistance and support lines, Trendlines, Price action, Candlestick Pattern, MACD, RSI, rectangle.
LIGHT.CMD/USD Weekly Chart
  • The MACD on the weekly chart is in the positive zone.
  • The RSI is headed north.
From the weekly chart, it looks like there is more potential to the upside.
LIGHT.CMD/USD Daily Chart
  • The MACD on the Daily chart is positive but about to turn back down.

  • The RSI is overbought and headed South.
From the facts above we can deduce that LIGHT.CMD/USD will correct in…
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killer195175 9 Dic

UPDATE-1
The pair has ended the week at 57.29. The MACD and RSI are looking good. The pair will go higher in the coming days and we will be able to achieve our target at 61.50.

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killer195175 15 Dic

UPDATE-2
The pair has ended the week at 57.29. Now it is trading at 57.28. The pair is consolidating. I expect some good buying when the price hits or get near to the rising trendline. This event may take place next week.

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killer195175 24 Dic

UPDATE-3
The price action in this pair has been very promising so far but the pair has failed to break the falling trendline as we predicted for the break of the line. If it breaks the line next week then we may find our target of 61.50. Otherwise it may fall further to 57.00 levels.

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Cable could fall some more in the near term

al_dcdemo Publicado 27 Ago como análisis en GBP/USD, Objetivo: 1.2775, Fecha: 2 de Octubre, 12:00 GMT  en #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Rising Channel #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Neutral Boe #Bottoming Area
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Cable broke below a declining wedge in one of the most volatile weeks in the pair's history as U.K. opted out of E.U. A flash crash in October 2016 …
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al_dcdemo 15 Sep

UPDATE 6: A hawkish hold by the BOE yesterday took many by surprise. Interest rates and voting pattern were left unchanged, as expected, but the minutes revealed that the majority of MPC saw as likely some withdrawal of monetary stimulus over the coming months, provided that economy continues on its current path. Having been already in a firm uptrend, GBP/USD took the decision in a stride. It gained almost two cents on the day and so far added a good cent this morning. The pair is currently trading at the highest level since the Brexit vote.

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al_dcdemo 16 Sep

UPDATE 7: It was a positive week for the dollar, which closed higher against most major currencies. By far the best performer was British pound, which rallied on a hawkish shift from the BOE. New Zealand dollar closed marginally higher after some election polls indicated continuation of the status quo. Following weekly close below strong support at 108.10, yen reversed sharply and ended the week above 110.50. Next week's main event is FOMC meeting at which the committee is widely expected to announce balance sheet adjustment plan. Forward guidance on rates will be watched closely as well.

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al_dcdemo 20 Sep

UPDATE 8: Fed remains on track with monetary policy. Balance sheet adjustment will start in October. Most members are expecting another hike this year. Three more hikes are projected for 2018. Neutral rate was downgraded to 2.8% from 3.0%. The market clearly expected something less hawkish from them. The dollar rallied across the board but the rally run out of steam after 100 - 150 pips of gains. Any further gains may not last because, fundamentally, nothing really changed today.

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al_dcdemo 1 Oct

UPDATE 9: It seems that U.S. dollar finally found some traction. A rise in treasury bond yields after more hawkish than expected FOMC last week is one part of the story. The other is that despite all difficulties in passing new healthcare bill, U.S. tax reform may prove to be a success for Administration. In any case, market got ahead of itself on the convergence trade and what we are seeing now is probably just a healthy retracement and not an outright reversal. Another supportive factor for the dollar is that any weakness in September data will be dismissed due to hurricane impact.

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al_dcdemo 4 Oct

UPDATE 10: Markets have been relatively sedate so far this week, at least major currency pairs. There was some movement in GBP/USD, which has continued its correction lower. Mostly weaker U.K. PMI readings and ever-present Brexit shenanigans haven't helped Cable. Technically, the pair broke back below 2016 - 2017 resistance line and August high. 50.0% retracement of the August - September rally is holding for now. Area between 50 DMA and 61.8% retracement is the next downside target. On the upside, 1.3325 - 1.3350 is where sellers may step in.

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Cable to remain well bid in August

al_dcdemo Publicado 27 Jul como análisis en GBP/USD, Objetivo: 1.3225, Fecha: 1 de Septiembre, 12:00 GMT  en #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Short Squeeze #Rising Channel #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Neutral Boe
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Cable broke below a declining wedge in one of the most volatile weeks in the pair's history as U.K. opted out of E.U. A flash crash in October 2016 …
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al_dcdemo 19 Ago

UPDATE 6: The week was to some extent a reversal of last week's risk-off moves. Canadian and Australian dollars were beneficiaries with yen and franc recording just marginal losses. It was not a good week for European currencies. Pound was the loser of the week while euro remains to be buoyed by dip buyers. Next week will be a quiet one data-wise. All eyes will be on Jackson Hole Symposium at the end of the week, which will feature speeches by Yellen and Draghi. Rumours go that the ECB president will avoid talking monetary policy. That will increase volatility if he does say something.

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al_dcdemo 24 Ago

UPDATE 7: Price action has been pretty sedate so far this week with most major currencies sitting near the middle of their weekly ranges. Euro and Canadian dollar are the only two that are marginally better than the U.S. dollar. There has been a little bit more action in the New Zealand dollar but selling stalled ahead of the strong support at 0.72. Tomorrow could prove to be the most lively day of this week with German Ifo Business Climate, U.S. (Core) Durable Goods Orders and Day 2 of the Jackson Hole Symposium which will bring Fed Chair Yellen and ECB President Draghi speeches.

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al_dcdemo 26 Ago

UPDATE 8: Speeches by Yellen and Draghi at Jackson Hole Symposium largely met expectations. Yellen didn't even talk about monetary policy while Draghi avoided giving any new information on what the ECB may do in autumn. Lack of hawkish clues from Yellen were enough to send the U.S. dollar lower across the board and then later some upbeat comments from Draghi (even though he warned about inflation not yet being self-sustained) propelled the euro to a new two-year high. Yen, pound and Australian dollar were flat on the week while New Zealand dollar was the laggard.

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al_dcdemo 31 Ago

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar index broke to the lowest level since 2015 on Monday before staging a sharp pullback. That coincided with euro breaking above 1.20 and 2012 low (1.2040) and franc below 0.95. Yen was once again contained by the strong support at 108. Kiwi is out of favour ahead of N.Z. general election. Canadian dollar sold off hard yesterday but already recouped all losses and some after strong Q2 GDP figure. Australian dollar has been the least volatile of the bunch but with some impressive reversals. NFP report tomorrow will be a nice finale to this exciting week.

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al_dcdemo 1 Sep

UPDATE 10: U.S. labour market report for August fell short of expectations on most metrics. August is historically weak with regard to NFP figure but Wednesday's strong ADP figure gave dollar bulls some hope that this time was different. It wasn't and the immediate reaction was to sell the dollar. The report itself was not great but was solid enough and subsequent price action seemed to agree. The dollar ended the week higher against euro, franc, yen and New Zealand dollar, and lower against pound, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar.

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Cable may continue to drift lower for some time

al_dcdemo Publicado 22 Jun como análisis en GBP/USD, Objetivo: 1.2575, Fecha: 1 de Agosto, 12:00 GMT  en #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Short Squeeze #Rising Channel #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Neutral Boe
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Cable broke below a declining wedge in one of the most volatile weeks in the pair's history as U.K. opted out of E.U. A flash crash in October 2016 …
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al_dcdemo 15 Jul

UPDATE 5: It was a worst week for the U.S. dollar in a while. It all started with the BOC decision on Wednesday after which Canadian dollar surged about 200 pips. The next day, Aussie and Kiwi played catch-up and rose about 100 pips respectively. Eagerly anticipated U.S. inflation and retail sales reports came in weaker than expected yesterday and exacerbated dollar losses across the board. Cable sliced through 1.30 to 1.3115, the highest in ten months. Euro had tough time holding above 1.14 but ended the week near the high, poised for a break higher. Exciting week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 23 Jul

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar ended another week of underperformance, falling against all major currencies bar the British pound. Euro confirmed break above 1.1450 to trade to the highest since mid 2015. Mirroring its cousin, Swiss franc closed the week below 0.95. Yen was bought down to 111. Canadian dollar extended its rally to approach 1.25. Australian dollar broke above 38.2% retracement of the 2014 - 2016 downswing. New Zealand dollar closed the week near 0.7450, just below the 50.0% retracement of the 2014 - 2015 decline. Momentum suggests further losses for the dollar in the week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 24 Jul

UPDATE 7: A mixed start to the week saw yen, pound, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar extend gains while euro, franc and New Zealand dollar are lagging. Data-wise, it's a quiet one until Wednesday when Australia publishes inflation data, U.K. releases preliminary GDP and FOMC concludes its meeting. U.S. reports durable goods orders on Thursday and GDP on Friday. Unless FOMC pulls a surprise, neither of these events has the potential change the current macroeconomic landscape. U.S. politics seems a more likely source from where some kind of a twist may come.

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al_dcdemo 27 Jul

UPDATE 8: Yesterday's reaction to the latest FOMC statement was quite strong for a meeting without press conference. The statement didn't divulge anything new but clearly the market was expecting something more hawkish. The committee indicated that it will begin with balance sheet adjustment "relatively soon". The language on inflation, however, has deteriorated a bit and that was probably the main reason the market sold the dollar. While balance sheet adjustment is now virtually a done deal, we may see further hikes in federal funds rate only if inflation picks up.

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al_dcdemo 31 Jul

UPDATE 9: Last week was an interesting one. Major currencies traded to fresh highs against the U.S. dollar. The single exception was Swiss franc which sold off strongly against all those currencies, including the dollar. Two cent and a half surge from sub 0.95 to above 0.97 might well have had SNB backing. There's nothing on the calendar for the week ahead that has the potential to reverse the current U.S. dollar weakness. Perhaps a concerted dovish effort from RBA and BOE could put a dent into this trend but most likely not for too long.

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USD/CAD will likely breakout from the channel

mrlfx Publicado 14 Jun como análisis en USD/CAD, Objetivo: 1.2554, Fecha: 1 de Agosto, 12:00 GMT  en #Technical analysis #Forecast #USD/CAD #Support And Resistance #Rising Channel #Elliot Waves
USD/CAD is currently inside a rising channel but likely to breach and breakout to test support level at 1.2500.
Daily Chart
Weekly Chart
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EUR/NZD is bullish

mrlfx Publicado 14 Jun como análisis en EUR/NZD, Objetivo: 1.6645, Fecha: 1 de Agosto, 12:00 GMT  en #Technical analysis #Forecasts #Support/resistance #EUR/NZD #Rising Channel #Elliot Waves
EUR/NZD is moving inside a rising channel. The pair is probably at the start of wave 5 of the 5 emotive elliot waves.
Daily Chart
Weekly Chart
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EUR/JPY is moving in a channel

mrlfx Publicado 14 Jun como análisis en EUR/JPY, Objetivo: 123.44, Fecha: 1 de Agosto, 12:00 GMT  en #Technical analysis #EUR/JPY #Forecast #Support And Resistance #Rising Channel #Elliot Waves
EUR/JPY is moving inside a rising channel. The pair is tracing the wave 3 of the 5 emotive elliot waves.
Daily Chart
Weekly Chart
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Kiwi looks soggy but buyers are waiting in the dips

al_dcdemo Publicado 29 Abr como análisis en NZD/USD, Objetivo: 0.6975, Fecha: 1 de Junio, 12:00 GMT  en #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Rising Channel #Range Trading #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Net Short Positioning #Neutral Rbnz
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Kiwi bottomed in August 2015 and was contained in a rising channel until recently. 2015/2016 support/resistance line and 100 week SMA are providing …
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al_dcdemo 14 May

UPDATE 5: Expected result of the French election spurred a pullback in euro and franc and, to a lesser extent, yen. The U.S. dollar indisputably won the week, rising against all G10 currencies. Weaker than expected inflation and retail sales reports on Friday led to some profit taking but June rate hike expectations hardly budged. Some further reaction to the reports is possible in the days ahead. Following a neutral BOE QIR, U.K. data will be closely watched next week. Australian labour force report and Canadian inflation and retail sales are also at the top of the list.

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al_dcdemo 21 May

UPDATE 6: In what was its worst week of the year, the dollar lost ground against all G10 currencies. Already soft start to the week after last Friday's inflation and retail sales reports was exacerbated by the political drama in the U.S. that has further shaken traders' confidence that the Administration will be able to deliver on its stimulus promises in due time. The biggest winners were euro and franc with Canadian dollar and pound not far behind. U.S. dollar index fell to the levels not seen since the U.S. election and closed the week near the low.

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al_dcdemo 25 May

UPDATE 7: As expected, FOMC meeting minutes didn't reveal anything particularly new. Weak Q1 GDP was dismissed in favour of strong employment growth. There was some caution regarding inflation by some members but was not a baseline view. The committee also discussed balance sheet reduction which can be seen as a hawkish development. Minutes are basically data two weeks old and the market responded with U.S. dollar selling. It's Fed speakers and how they will shape expectations for a June hike that the market is focused on.

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al_dcdemo 29 May

UPDATE 8: Last week was better for the U.S. dollar as it managed to rise, albeit marginally, against euro, franc, yen, and Australian dollar. Pound sold off after election polls showed PM May lost some support. Canadian dollar capitalized on oil strength, even though OPEC didn't go out on a limb this time around. New Zealand dollar continued its snap-back after bottoming near 0.685. European flash CPI and U.S. NFP report will be two events that the market will closely watch this week. Both have the potential to shape upcoming ECB and Fed decisions.

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al_dcdemo 30 May

UPDATE 9: Commodity currencies are back in favour after some hard time at the start of the month. Loonie and Kiwi both pulled from their cycle-lows while Aussie was bought up ahead of the trendline that connects January and December 2016 lows. A lot depends on the Fed and their tightening pace as BOC, RBA and RBNZ are likely to delay their hikes for as much as possible. Each of the three pairs is trading in a well established consolidaton pattern and it will take either a broad fundamental catalyst or some idiosyncratic risk to break that.

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