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While periodic anti-government protests are met with a strong security response, regarding Belarus’ relationship with Moscow, the weak status of the opposition and the economic interest found in maintaining the status quo indicate the country is likely to remain politically stable under the current government.Between February and March of 2017, Belarus experienced a wave of public protests linked to social discontent, sparked by the government’s attempt to implement a new tax known as the “soc…
Блог Сообщества Dukascopy
Non-farm payrolls Today 4/12
Hello Duka trader
Today the last trading day in th the first week we see today NFP
so here is a picture of the number in chart
The consumer was in a bit of a sour mood in November but that's more of a leading indicator while employment is lagging. Consumer surveys from the Conference Board and U Mich were soft and so were car sales. It doesn't bode well for the future but for this month it's probably not a factor.
On the upside the Fed's Beige Book, which was collected up to Nov 24, was positiv…
Today the last trading day in th the first week we see today NFP
so here is a picture of the number in chart
The consumer was in a bit of a sour mood in November but that's more of a leading indicator while employment is lagging. Consumer surveys from the Conference Board and U Mich were soft and so were car sales. It doesn't bode well for the future but for this month it's probably not a factor.
On the upside the Fed's Beige Book, which was collected up to Nov 24, was positiv…
FOMC Minutes- Main Risk Event Of The Day
Beside BOE minutes and interest rates decision there is nothing else on the news wire that can be a market mover except the FOMC minutes. The only thing that matters for investors is to look for more clues as to when the FED will start hiking interest rates.
When it comes to the bond-buying program Fed Chair Yellen has been very clear that the purchases will end in October so traders will look to this FOMC minutes to provide clues for rate rise timing. When it comes to timing next hike in rates …
When it comes to the bond-buying program Fed Chair Yellen has been very clear that the purchases will end in October so traders will look to this FOMC minutes to provide clues for rate rise timing. When it comes to timing next hike in rates …
ECB versus NFP
You don't get to often to have the ECB monetary policy announcement and the NFP report scheduled on the same day, but due to the fact that Friday is 4th of July, thus a holiday, the NFP figures are going to be released today.
Market expectation for both of this 2 risk events are very grounded as investors are not expecting for big surprises coming out today. Typically volatility drops off heading into 4th of July.
ECB has already announced in the previous meeting some monetary easing measur…
Market expectation for both of this 2 risk events are very grounded as investors are not expecting for big surprises coming out today. Typically volatility drops off heading into 4th of July.
ECB has already announced in the previous meeting some monetary easing measur…
Prepering the Week Ahead
In terms of risk evens the week ahead is cooling down and the previous week sentiment is likely to prevail. So here are few of the economic data scheduled for release this week:
- US Economic data:
- Retail Sales: Market expectation is for a raise by 0.4% from previous reading of just 0.1%;
- Core PPI: The market is expected the figure to came up by 0.1%, with modest gains in energy and food prices.
Here Comes the Job Report
After yesterday ECB decision today we have another big risk event which may cause some serious volatility: NFP figures.
I was not expecting to see that kind of behavior on EUR/USD after ECB's new market policy, however I'm not expecting EUR/USD to develop in to a new bearish trend not until 2015 and you can find more reasons why in my previous article: The Case for a Multi-year USD Bullish Trend
Now coming back to the NFP report there is no way we can beat previous figures of 288k. First …
I was not expecting to see that kind of behavior on EUR/USD after ECB's new market policy, however I'm not expecting EUR/USD to develop in to a new bearish trend not until 2015 and you can find more reasons why in my previous article: The Case for a Multi-year USD Bullish Trend
Now coming back to the NFP report there is no way we can beat previous figures of 288k. First …
Prepearing the Week Ahead
This week's ECB meeting can be the most important event of the year for euro as low inflation threats can be an obstacle to EU recovery. The President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi has already signaled the fact that ECB is ready to take action at this week's meeting including both conventional and unconventional measures.
Market expectation for ECB meeting:
- Refi rate to be cut by 15bps to 0.1%;
War bullish or Bearish?
Currently the main market driven theme and the high risk event is the geopolitical event happening right now in Ukraine. As we have seen the market has become very sensitive to any risk event The news coming out from Ukraine are escalating very fast the Risk ON-OFF play and usually in time of uncertainties Risk On-Off will play in both sides as things begin to escalate in Ukraine risk aversion will kick in and when things will see some …
Preparing the Week Ahead
With the uprising tension in Ukraine and because we are in facto in a war the market action may be disrupted by the events developing right now in Ukraine. If the market will get very sensitive to this geopolitical event we can see massive capital inflows into the save haven instruments like USD,CHF,JPY and Gold which is ultimately the hedge against government not inflation as I've been demonstrating in my previous blog posts.
Above all of this next week economic calendar is very heavy and H…