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EURCAD - 1 May 2018 Technical Analysis Forecast


  • In the second have of 2017 the pair seemed to be trading in a range with the lower bound at 1.4468 and the upper bound at 1.5239.
  • A break above the upper limit in January 2018 led to a bullish rally in the pair as highlighted by the channel.

  • The 2018 high is at 1.61215 and the 2018 low is at 1.48153
  • It is highly unlikely that we are going to see a reversal of the bullish trend in the coming month
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EURAUD - 1 May 2018 Technical Analysis Forecast

Chart 1
  • Chart 1 above shows the bollinger bands on the daily chart set at 1.5869 for the upper band, 1.5717 and 1.5576 for the middle and lower band respectively
  • The huge gap between the lower and upper band shows that the pair has been trading in a wide range.
  • The average true range is at 0.0109 implying very low volatility
Chart 2
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Use of Average True Range and Pip Value

Dukascopy has very useful tool for trading that is called pip value calculator I wrote an article about finding good currency pair with the help of ATR and pip value. you can find the complete article here
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EUR/GBP Nearing Resistance Cluster

After a long rally that saw the EUR/GBP advance in 8 out of the last 10 months, the pair may finally hit a roadblock. We are nearing a cluster of resistance levels. They start with 0.8724, last month's high, continue with 0.8768 (August 2013 high) and end with 0.8814, a four-year high for this currency pair.
But there are signs that the bull run is slowing down. On the daily chart below notice the constant decline in the Average Daily Range. This is a proxy for volatility. Furthermore since reac…
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Range Continues to Constrict in the EUR/GBP

After a volatile start to the summer (with the Brexit commotion), the EUR/GBP is slowly calming down. Volatility continues to decline. While June had a range of close to 800 pips, in July the low to high movement was only 377 pips. And this month the range dropped even lower to 279 pips. Meanwhile the open to close range is at even smaller at 45 pips. On the chart below we can see volatility declining in the EUR/GBP.
But volatility isn't everything. Currencies can continue to grind higher or lo…
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fxsurprise8 avatar

So far the monthly range stands at only 383 pips. The high stands at 0.8716 while the low is at 0.8333.

Open to close we're at +149 pips. This is a bit higher volatility then I expected.

But even so, we're currently quoted at 0.8649, less then 150 pips away from my target. I just need a few down days to bring me closer to my forecasted price :)

fxsurprise8 avatar

We're seeing small declines today in the EUR/GBP but they're not deep enough to bring me substantially closer to my target.

Today we opened at 0.8651, moved to a high of 0.8661 only to fall to a low of 0.8604 later in the day. We're now trading at 0.8635, still a good 144 pips away from the forecast. I need more GBP strength to nudge the pair closer to the target.

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An Investor's Low Volatility Strategy

I'm sure that most of you guys are exasperated about the current never-ending low volatility environment(see Figure 1) as current market conditions has become increasingly challenging. The Forex Exchange market has been in a very deep sleep for the most part of this year and swing trading opportunities have vanished away and that's one of the reasons why in current low volatility environment the Carry Trading Strategy are preferred more as it makes sense that investors who are chasing yield to …
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JuliaBF avatar
JuliaBF 16 Sep.

well done!

Olga18375 avatar
Olga18375 16 Sep.

interesting information!

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ECB versus NFP

You don't get to often to have the ECB monetary policy announcement and the NFP report scheduled on the same day, but due to the fact that Friday is 4th of July, thus a holiday, the NFP figures are going to be released today.
Market expectation for both of this 2 risk events are very grounded as investors are not expecting for big surprises coming out today. Typically volatility drops off heading into 4th of July.
ECB has already announced in the previous meeting some monetary easing measur…
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