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EUR/USD to remain range-bound

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2015年07月30日。分析予想通貨ペア:EUR/USD, 予想レート: 1.1075, 予想日: 1日9月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Range #Summer Trading #Bounce #Downtrend #Bearish Bias #Channel Line #Yearly Lows #Data Dependence
Monthly chart:
The pair has been in a downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the longer-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, a series of important levels gave way: 50.0% retracement (of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend), 2012 low, 2010 low, 2005 low and 61.8% retracement. The levels were falling like dominoes before the rout finally stopped near the declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows). Further support comes in at 2003 low (1.0331) and then at 76.4% re…
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al_dcdemo 2015年08月10日

UPDATE 4: Next week may well turn out to be one of the most quiet weeks of this summer. Having said that, if the pair continues to gain beyond the trendline drawn off July , August and December 2014 highs (currently near 1.10), the possibility of a larger short covering rally ahead of the September FOMC meeting is not excluded. On the downside, 1.0800 - 1.0850 will have to hold if the pair is to remain in range.

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al_dcdemo 2015年08月15日

UPDATE 5: The pair trended higher in the first part of the week and then consolidated in the second. It appears to have decisively broken above the trendline drawn off July, August and December 2014 highs. In addition, it broke 100 DMA and then also 50 DMA and closed above both. Despite slightly extended upper tail, weekly candle looks bullish, particularly in regard to the break of the trendline.

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al_dcdemo 2015年08月16日

UPDATE 6: Flash PMIs from Europe and inflation report from the US are main market moving events on the calendar for the week ahead. Technically, the pair will need to stay above both 50 and 100 DMA, if it wants to maintain bullish bias - any pullback towards 1.10 shall be soaked up quickly. The other, perhaps more probable, scenario is a more ranging-like uptrend with a deeper pullback to 1.0900 - 1.0950.

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al_dcdemo 2015年08月28日

UPDATE 7: Euro exploded higher on Monday. It rose close to 350 pips from the low of the day, which is the largest daily range since March 18th. It then spent the rest of the week paring gains from the four-day rally. It is back under 1.12  as I type and is poised to close the week near this pivotal level. The result is a big shooting star on the weekly chart.

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al_dcdemo 2015年08月29日

UPDATE 8: First week in month is always relevant from the fundamental point of view as we usually get to see a lot of top tier economic data in that period. Week ahead will be particularly important as there's an ECB meeting scheduled too. 50 and 100 DMA, which are currently running just below 1.11, are the support levels to watch in the days ahead. On the topside, 200 DMA is the key level.

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EUR/USD to break higher

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2015年06月30日。分析予想通貨ペア:EUR/USD, 予想レート: 1.1475, 予想日: 3日8月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Greece #Bounce #Downtrend #Channel Line #Yearly Lows #Strong Resistance #Lift Off #Bullish Mode
Monthly chart:
The pair has been in a downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the longer-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, a series of important levels gave way: 50.0% retracement (of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend), 2012 low, 2010 low, 2005 low and 61.8% retracement. The levels were falling like dominoes before the rout finally stopped near the declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows). Further support comes in at 2003 low (1.0331) and then at 76.4% re…
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al_dcdemo 2015年07月13日

UPDATE 4: Euro gapped down 50 odd pips at the open. This was the third weekend gap in a row. It was smallest of them all and it was also the quickest one to close - in the first hour of trading. After a deal was reached between EU and Greece, the pair rallied 70 pips but stalled ahead of 1.12 and reversed from there to fall 200 pips. It appears poised to close below 100 DMA.

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WallStreet6 2015年07月28日

I think this one will be the biggest miss as don't think it will move above 1.12 within a week. But very thorough analysis!

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al_dcdemo 2015年07月31日

Thanks! Yep, more luck next time. :)

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al_dcdemo 2015年07月31日

UPDATE 5: The week in the pair was quite volatile, yet the range was less than 250 pips. The pair continued last week's rally on Monday and extended to 1.1130 before running out of steam. It then fell for three days, setting a low just below 1.09 on Thursday. Friday was the most interesting day as the combination of weaker than expected wage data and month-end flows sent the pair to 1.1115 before it fall all the way back.

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al_dcdemo 2015年08月01日

UPDATE 6: Next week will be important as we will get the latest NFP report and both ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs from the US. 50 DMA is proving to be a formidable resistance as it held four times this month. Above that, July 10th high (~1.1215) is the next. Initial support is seen at July 30th low (~1.0890) before range support near 1.08.

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EUR/USD parity not just yet

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2015年05月30日。分析予想通貨ペア:EUR/USD, 予想レート: 1.1375, 予想日: 1日7月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Bounce #Downtrend #Bearish Bias #Channel Line #Yearly Lows #Strong Resistance #Data Dependence #Lift Off
Monthly chart:
The pair has been in a downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the long-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, series of important levels gave way, falling like dominoes: 50.0% retracement (of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend), 2012 low, 2010 low, 2005 low and 61.8% retracement, before it finally stopped near the declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows). Next support comes in at 2003 low at 1.0331 and and further down 76.4% retracement just abo…
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al_dcdemo 2015年06月16日

UPDATE 6: It will be an interesting and possibly volatile week ahead for the pair. The FOMC will meet on 16th and 17th and on the latter day they will publish their latest decision and economic projections, which will be followed by a press conference. The other main story is Greece and the Eurogroup Meetings will be watched closely. Stronger support is seen near 1.1050 (June 5th low, 50 and 100 DMA), while the weekly trendline resistance shall be found between 1.13 and 1.14.

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al_dcdemo 2015年06月20日

UPDATE 7: It was a roller-coaster week for the pair in which both sides struggled for domination. It was the buyers who were having the upper hand most of the time, but the sellers wouldn't let them very high. The main event, FOMC meeting, left us none the wiser and the pair jumped on it as there was nothing particularly Dollar-bullish. The main thing that is holding the pair down at the moment is the uncertainty surrounding Greece.

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al_dcdemo 2015年06月21日

UPDATE 8: Next week will kick off with the Eurogroup Meetings on Monday and there are rumours in the market that there is some kind of a deal in the making. We'll also have Flash PMIs and German Ifo Business Climate, while from the other side of the Atlantic we'll get: Existing Home Sales, (Core) Durable Goods Orders, Final GDP and Unemployment Claims. We are currently trading in the middle of ascending triangle with support near 1.13 and resistance in 1.1400 - 1.1450 band.

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al_dcdemo 2015年06月26日

UPDATE 9: It was an odd week. On Monday, the pair was unable to rally on good prospects for a deal between Greece and its creditors. After EU welcomed Greek proposal as a "big step forward", the pair started to fall and it extended the decline by 200 pips on Tuesday. And then there was no sell-off despite renewed worries on creditors' rejection of the proposal. From there it was tight sideways trading for the rest of the week.

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al_dcdemo 2015年06月27日

UPDATE 10: The talks will continue on Saturday and many officials are expecting a deal, while many of others are growing pessimistic. Both sides are relentless on their positions and it appears unlikely that the talks will be concluded this weekend. Initial support is seen near 50 DMA with more in 1.1000 - 1.1050 band, which includes pivotal 1.1075 level and 100 DMA. Initial resistance may be found near 1.1225.

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EUR/USD bottom? Not just yet.

al_dcdemo 投稿日: 2015年02月28日。分析予想通貨ペア:EUR/USD, 予想レート: 1.0977, 予想日: 1日4月, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Euro #Consolidation #EUR/USD #Fibonacci Retracement #Momentum #Divergence #Bearish Technicals #Yearly Lows #Technical Downtrend
Monthly chart:
After it closed the year 2014 below 200 month SMA, the pair continued its journey to the South with increased momentum. Big support levels (1.20 level, then 2012, 2010 and 2005 lows) fell like dominoes. 61.8% retracement of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend was violated in January, but the pair managed to retrace back above it. The pair then held above the level until the last two trading days of February when it broke lower and closed the month below the level. The September 2003 low at 1…
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al_dcdemo 2015年03月07日

UPDATE 1: After some consolidation in the beginning of the week, the pair broke lower on Wednesday and closed the day on new eleven-year lows. On Thursday, during ECB press conference, it briefly traded back above 1.1098, but it reversed and proceeded to break 1.10. Then on Friday, before and after another strong US jobs report, it lost additional two cents, netting nearly 350 pips loss on the week. Support is now seen near 2003 low at 1.0760 and then at the monthly channel line (off lows of years 2008 and 2010, not shown on the charts) closer to 1.05.

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al_dcdemo 2015年03月15日

UPDATE 2: In another devastating week, the pair has lost additional three and a half cents. After a shallow pullback on Monday, it was one-way street lower, breaking September 2003 low, monthly channel line (drawn off lows of years 2008 and 2010) and 1.05 level, in the process. There was slight relief on Thursday, but it was quickly sold into and new lows followed on Friday with the pair closing below 1.05. There's not a lot of support now until 76.4% retracement (of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend) and parity.

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al_dcdemo 2015年03月21日

UPDATE 3: The pair was gaining since the beginning of the week, but the most volatile part came on Wednesday during and after FOMC meeting, when it surged more than 400 pips from pre-release levels. The pair gave it all back next day, but then picked up where it left off and continued to rally on Friday and closed above September 2013 low (1.0760). The pair has almost completely reversed last week's losses and at one point traded more than 100 pips above that week's high. First stronger resistance now comes near January 19 low (1.1097).

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al_dcdemo 2015年03月28日

UPDATE 4: Following a cent deep retracement early on Monday, the pair continued last Friday's rally and was poised to break above post-FOMC high on Tuesday, but solid US inflation report was enough to stall it. After some sideways action, the pair broke post-FOMC high (1.1035) and spent some moments above 1.1050 level, but was rejected and it traded back lower, testing 1.08 on Friday before returning back to 1.09 pivot. The direction is unclear at the moment, 1.0750 - 1.1050 is the range.

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