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BOE proceeds with caution, pound sells off

Bank of England left the official bank rate unchanged. Market had expected a hawkish hold, ideally a green light for a hike in August. That wasn't to be, instead they said the timing of the next hike depends on incoming economic data. GBP/USD adjusted lower but bounced back after U.S. CPI missed estimate prompted some profit taking on long dollar positions. 200 DMA near 1.355 is the bull/bear line in sand.
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Calmer Months for EUR/GBP

The EUR/GBP is generally not a fun pair to trade. During 2015, in 5 of the last 9 months, the pair closed within 100 pips of it's opening price. But this hasn't been the case in August and September. The high volatility across all markets led to a 292 pips gain for the Euro in August. This was followed by another large range in September of 240 pips. In addition to this, as can be seen on the chart below, volatility has been going up.
The 14-day Average True Range has greatly increased, from a l…
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EUR/USD to remain range-bound

Monthly chart:
The pair has been in a downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the longer-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, a series of important levels gave way: 50.0% retracement (of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend), 2012 low, 2010 low, 2005 low and 61.8% retracement. The levels were falling like dominoes before the rout finally stopped near the declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows). Further support comes in at 2003 low (1.0331) and then at 76.4% re…
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al_dcdemo 10 Aug.

UPDATE 4: Next week may well turn out to be one of the most quiet weeks of this summer. Having said that, if the pair continues to gain beyond the trendline drawn off July , August and December 2014 highs (currently near 1.10), the possibility of a larger short covering rally ahead of the September FOMC meeting is not excluded. On the downside, 1.0800 - 1.0850 will have to hold if the pair is to remain in range.

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al_dcdemo 15 Aug.

UPDATE 5: The pair trended higher in the first part of the week and then consolidated in the second. It appears to have decisively broken above the trendline drawn off July, August and December 2014 highs. In addition, it broke 100 DMA and then also 50 DMA and closed above both. Despite slightly extended upper tail, weekly candle looks bullish, particularly in regard to the break of the trendline.

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al_dcdemo 16 Aug.

UPDATE 6: Flash PMIs from Europe and inflation report from the US are main market moving events on the calendar for the week ahead. Technically, the pair will need to stay above both 50 and 100 DMA, if it wants to maintain bullish bias - any pullback towards 1.10 shall be soaked up quickly. The other, perhaps more probable, scenario is a more ranging-like uptrend with a deeper pullback to 1.0900 - 1.0950.

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al_dcdemo 28 Aug.

UPDATE 7: Euro exploded higher on Monday. It rose close to 350 pips from the low of the day, which is the largest daily range since March 18th. It then spent the rest of the week paring gains from the four-day rally. It is back under 1.12  as I type and is poised to close the week near this pivotal level. The result is a big shooting star on the weekly chart.

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al_dcdemo 29 Aug.

UPDATE 8: First week in month is always relevant from the fundamental point of view as we usually get to see a lot of top tier economic data in that period. Week ahead will be particularly important as there's an ECB meeting scheduled too. 50 and 100 DMA, which are currently running just below 1.11, are the support levels to watch in the days ahead. On the topside, 200 DMA is the key level.

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NZD/USD has further to fall

Monthly chart:
In January, the pair busted 100 month SMA, 38.2% retracement of the 2009 to 2011 uptrend and the low of the 2011 to 2014 trading range around 0.7350. February, March and April were more or less range-bound, but in May the pair broke to the downside strongly in what appears to be the continuation of the longer term downtrend. In June, 0.70 and 50.0% retracement of the 2009 to 2011 uptrend (0.6868) were broken and the pair is poised to close the month below both levels.
Weekly char…
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al_dcdemo 25 July

UPDATE 8: On the latest rally, the pair ran out of steam at the trendline, drawn off of May 14th and June 10th highs. That will be the first stronger level to breach to signal that the downtrend has run its course. But with RBNZ firmly in its easing seat and with few more rate cuts expected by the end of the year, support at 0.65 is likely to fall first.

WallStreet6 avatar

About 100 pips away- the kiwi could come close as well. Great analysis with many indicators taken into account! Good Luck!

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al_dcdemo 31 July

Thanks! Let's hope for a Monday attempt at the downside. :)

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al_dcdemo 31 July

UPDATE 9: The pair traded on both sides of the previous week range before returning to close in the lower half of it. This was the second week in a row that the pair managed to close higher - last time that this happened was in February. Upper tails on both weekly candles are substantial but inability of the pair to close below the open is quite telling too.

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UPDATE 10: Next week will be very important in terms of economic data. NFP and ISM reports from the US will be come out and New Zealand will release its latest labour market figures. 0.65 support proved to be a decent one, but demand appears to start coming in at 2010 low (~0.6560). Should the levels hold, a period of consolidation may follow and last at least until September FOMC meeting.

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EUR/USD parity not just yet

Monthly chart:
The pair has been in a downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the long-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, series of important levels gave way, falling like dominoes: 50.0% retracement (of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend), 2012 low, 2010 low, 2005 low and 61.8% retracement, before it finally stopped near the declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows). Next support comes in at 2003 low at 1.0331 and and further down 76.4% retracement just abo…
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al_dcdemo 16 June

UPDATE 6: It will be an interesting and possibly volatile week ahead for the pair. The FOMC will meet on 16th and 17th and on the latter day they will publish their latest decision and economic projections, which will be followed by a press conference. The other main story is Greece and the Eurogroup Meetings will be watched closely. Stronger support is seen near 1.1050 (June 5th low, 50 and 100 DMA), while the weekly trendline resistance shall be found between 1.13 and 1.14.

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al_dcdemo 20 June

UPDATE 7: It was a roller-coaster week for the pair in which both sides struggled for domination. It was the buyers who were having the upper hand most of the time, but the sellers wouldn't let them very high. The main event, FOMC meeting, left us none the wiser and the pair jumped on it as there was nothing particularly Dollar-bullish. The main thing that is holding the pair down at the moment is the uncertainty surrounding Greece.

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al_dcdemo 21 June

UPDATE 8: Next week will kick off with the Eurogroup Meetings on Monday and there are rumours in the market that there is some kind of a deal in the making. We'll also have Flash PMIs and German Ifo Business Climate, while from the other side of the Atlantic we'll get: Existing Home Sales, (Core) Durable Goods Orders, Final GDP and Unemployment Claims. We are currently trading in the middle of ascending triangle with support near 1.13 and resistance in 1.1400 - 1.1450 band.

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al_dcdemo 26 June

UPDATE 9: It was an odd week. On Monday, the pair was unable to rally on good prospects for a deal between Greece and its creditors. After EU welcomed Greek proposal as a "big step forward", the pair started to fall and it extended the decline by 200 pips on Tuesday. And then there was no sell-off despite renewed worries on creditors' rejection of the proposal. From there it was tight sideways trading for the rest of the week.

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al_dcdemo 27 June

UPDATE 10: The talks will continue on Saturday and many officials are expecting a deal, while many of others are growing pessimistic. Both sides are relentless on their positions and it appears unlikely that the talks will be concluded this weekend. Initial support is seen near 50 DMA with more in 1.1000 - 1.1050 band, which includes pivotal 1.1075 level and 100 DMA. Initial resistance may be found near 1.1225.

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EUR/USD to remain bullish

Monthly chart:
After it closed the year of 2014 below 200 month SMA, the pair continued its journey to the South with increased momentum. Big support levels (1.20 level, then 2012, 2010 and 2005 lows) fell like dominoes. 61.8% retracement of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend held for some time in January and February, but it too gave way. After busting September 2003 low at 1.0761, the decline stopped near declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows), but not before run on stops below 1.05 level…
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UPDATE 2: There are a couple of important economic releases next week. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday will provide latest insight into US business climate. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change on Wednesday will be watched closely for general indications regarding employment. And Non-Farm Employment Change on Friday, which has the potential to reaffirm or reverse current USD weakening trend. Previous resistance 1.1000 - 1.1050 should now offer decent initial support.

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UPDATE 3: The pair started the week a bit on a back foot but on Tuesday it reversed sharply, after dipping into strong support (previous range resistance) in 1.1035 - 1.1100 band. It proceeded higher from there to just below 1.14 on Thursday when profit taking in expectation of two big risk events (UK election, NFP) sent it back down to 1.1250. On Friday it fell further and closed the week few ticks above 1.12. Doji-like weekly candle signals indecision, but we will have to wait till next week for clues about further direction.

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UPDATE 4: There are not a lot of market moving events from Europe: Eurogroup Meetings on Monday, German Prelim GDP q/q on Wednesday. (Core) Retail Sales, PPI, Unemployment Claims and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment will provide latest read on US economy. Initial support is seen in 1.1035 - 1.1100 band before 20 and 50 DMA. Resistance: 1.14 then 1.145 before 1.1490 - 1.1530.

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UPDATE 5: Euro was the best performer among major pairs in the past week (percentage-wise). It gained just shy of 250 pips, while weekly range was almost 350 pips. It started the week on the back foot, but that changed on Tuesday when strong reversal from the lows near 1.11 signaled that the uptrend is about to resume. That was confirmed on Wednesday after another 150 pip surge on weak US retail sales report. The pair followed through with higher highs on both Thursday and Friday, closing near the high.

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UPDATE 6: The week ahead could prove to be volatile due to both fundamental and technical factors. We have German ZEW Economic Sentiment, European PMIs, German Ifo Business Climate and three speeches from ECB President Draghi from Europe, plus FOMC Meeting Minutes, inflation report and few other market moving events from the US. Technically, the pair appears poised to break above 1.15 in the days/weeks ahead with the potential up to 38.2% retracement (of the May 2014 to March 2015 decline) at 1.1810 and 2010 low at 1.1875.

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