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EUR/USD to remain bullish

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Apr. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.1486, Date: 1st of June, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Euro #Bullish #EUR/USD #Bounce #South #Channel Line #Supply Zone #Strong Momentum #Data Dependence
Monthly chart:
After it closed the year of 2014 below 200 month SMA, the pair continued its journey to the South with increased momentum. Big support levels (1.20 level, then 2012, 2010 and 2005 lows) fell like dominoes. 61.8% retracement of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend held for some time in January and February, but it too gave way. After busting September 2003 low at 1.0761, the decline stopped near declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows), but not before run on stops below 1.05 level…
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al_dcdemo 3 May

UPDATE 2: There are a couple of important economic releases next week. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI on Tuesday will provide latest insight into US business climate. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change on Wednesday will be watched closely for general indications regarding employment. And Non-Farm Employment Change on Friday, which has the potential to reaffirm or reverse current USD weakening trend. Previous resistance 1.1000 - 1.1050 should now offer decent initial support.

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al_dcdemo 10 May

UPDATE 3: The pair started the week a bit on a back foot but on Tuesday it reversed sharply, after dipping into strong support (previous range resistance) in 1.1035 - 1.1100 band. It proceeded higher from there to just below 1.14 on Thursday when profit taking in expectation of two big risk events (UK election, NFP) sent it back down to 1.1250. On Friday it fell further and closed the week few ticks above 1.12. Doji-like weekly candle signals indecision, but we will have to wait till next week for clues about further direction.

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al_dcdemo 11 May

UPDATE 4: There are not a lot of market moving events from Europe: Eurogroup Meetings on Monday, German Prelim GDP q/q on Wednesday. (Core) Retail Sales, PPI, Unemployment Claims and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment will provide latest read on US economy. Initial support is seen in 1.1035 - 1.1100 band before 20 and 50 DMA. Resistance: 1.14 then 1.145 before 1.1490 - 1.1530.

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al_dcdemo 17 May

UPDATE 5: Euro was the best performer among major pairs in the past week (percentage-wise). It gained just shy of 250 pips, while weekly range was almost 350 pips. It started the week on the back foot, but that changed on Tuesday when strong reversal from the lows near 1.11 signaled that the uptrend is about to resume. That was confirmed on Wednesday after another 150 pip surge on weak US retail sales report. The pair followed through with higher highs on both Thursday and Friday, closing near the high.

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al_dcdemo 18 May

UPDATE 6: The week ahead could prove to be volatile due to both fundamental and technical factors. We have German ZEW Economic Sentiment, European PMIs, German Ifo Business Climate and three speeches from ECB President Draghi from Europe, plus FOMC Meeting Minutes, inflation report and few other market moving events from the US. Technically, the pair appears poised to break above 1.15 in the days/weeks ahead with the potential up to 38.2% retracement (of the May 2014 to March 2015 decline) at 1.1810 and 2010 low at 1.1875.

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EUR/USD to continue south

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Jan. as Analysis on EUR/USD, Target: 1.0970, Date: 2nd of March, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Euro #EUR/USD #Sma #Confluence #South #Bearish Bias #Parity #Divergence #Big Support Levels
Monthly chart:
After it closed the year 2014 below 200 month SMA, the pair continued its journey to the South with increased momentum. Big support levels (1.20 level, then 2012, 2010 and 2005 lows) fell like dominoes. 61.8% retracement of 2000 - 2008 rally was violated on two occasions, but the pair managed to retrace back above it, so technically it is still holding. If it gives way, the September 2003 low at 1.07606 will come into focus and further down 76.4% retracement (of 2000 - 2008 rally)…
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al_dcdemo 8 Feb.

The pair broke above previous week high and closed above it on two occasions. However, on each following day it reversed and completely erased previous day's gains. The second time it did this was on Friday, in the aftermath of stellar US jobs report. The pair formed a shooting star on weekly chart, but will need to trade below 1.1250 - 1.1275 to confirm the pattern. If the pair won't be able to continue lower after such strong technical and fundamental signals, then that would be pretty bullish.

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al_dcdemo 15 Feb.

The pair started the week with a gap down which was quickly filled and then in another attempt later in the day it also failed to continue past 1.1250. After three days of consolidation, the pair broke higher and ended the week in the middle of the previous week's range. The price action in the pair has been looking more bullish than bearish as the Dollar appears to have been losing steam against most major currencies. I'd say the bias is neutral at the moment in 1.1250 - 1.1500 range. The pair will need to convincingly break either of the extremes to provide direction for the next leg.

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al_dcdemo 22 Feb.

It was another range-bound week for the pair in which it mostly remained between the inner posts (1.1300 - 1.1450) of the 1.1250 - 1.1500 range. It slightly violated them on Friday in the sell-off before the Eurozone-Greece talks. It closed the week bang in the middle of the range (1.1375). Now that Greece was given four-month extension to their bailout there's risk of a deeper correction, especially if US inflation and/or GDP data disappoints.

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WallStreet6 24 Feb.

Less bearish forecast than mine, but stiil the Euro not looking to get near. I don't think the situation in Greece will have such an impact in the following days. Good indicators!

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al_dcdemo 24 Feb.

Thanks! Yep, a tape bomb from Draghi or US CPI and GDP surprises will be needed to get closer to the target.

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AUD/USD in a steady downtrend

al_dcdemo Posted 31 Dec. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.8043, Date: 2nd of February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Correction #Downtrend #South #Support Cluster #Bearish Bias
Monthly chart:
The pair is in a steady downtrend. After retesting 50.0% retracement (of the October 2008 to July 2011 rally) from below, it continued south and is nearing the support cluster, consisting of May 2010 low (0.8066), 0.80 level and 61.8% retracement.
Weekly chart:
After strong decline in September 2014, price has consolidated in October 2014 and for most of November 2014. In the remainder of the year the pair lost another four cents and it is going into year-end near lows. As with m…
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al_dcdemo 4 Jan.

Update 1: Even though price action in Aussie on a first trading day of the year actually had signs of two way interest (as opposed to Cable and Loonie), the pair did broke to new lows just half an hour before the close. It then managed to retrace 10 pips, which is the most of all majors. This just goes to show how incredibly strong US Dollar was on this particular day.

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al_dcdemo 11 Jan.

Update 2: In the past week, the pair was the second best performing currency after the Kiwi. But it didn't go as easy as it sounds. After making new low on Monday and failed first attempt at the upside on Tuesday, it then made new marginal low on Wednesday and after grinding again higher on Thursday it then finally managed to break higher on Friday. It closed the week on highs. If it can break and hold above 0.8215, that would support the short-term bullish sentiment.

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al_dcdemo 18 Jan.

Update 3: After initial weakness, the pair managed to hold above 0.80 and then traded higher, closing the week on a firm footing above 0.82. Provided that it stays bullish in the following week, the immediate resistance is shorter-term trendline (drawn off September 05, 2014 and November 17, 2014 highs) and then 50 day SMA.

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al_dcdemo 25 Jan.

Update 4: Bank of Canada caught the market off guard by surprisingly cutting rates on Wednesday. This action also had significant effect on Aussie, as market began to ponder whether RBA will be next. By the end of the week the pair broke 0.80 level, 61.8% retracement of the October 2008 to July 2011 rally and traded down to 0.7880. It has closed the week just above 0.79. Technicals look ugly and point to further losses, at least to 0.7800 - 0.7850 initially. On the upside, 0.8000 - 0.8050 should now  cap upticks.

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