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EURUSD weakness

fjollon Posted 21 Apr.  in #Trader's blog
First @ support: I can't see myself in the standings list. According to my graph above I should be 64 now, but in the standings I can't find myself. When I search on my name it's like I'm not in the competition. Same if I search for March.
Today the EURUSD did a nice reversal down. The volume is high and this is a good sign for the bears. It's too early to say if the up-trend since December is broken (because it's not) but it might at least go down a bit from here.
I'm short in GBPJPY as well as…
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OneGoodTrade 24 Apr.

BOJ intervention was a tough one. To find yourself in the standing list click on All Traders box. There is a new drawdown filter.

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EURJPY

fjollon Posted 18 Apr.  in #Trader's blog
The EURJPY made a new bottom today and then went up sharply. A few days ago I mentioned that there could be some lack of supply in this pair and this might very well be the confirmation of that. First a little trap to catch the bears with the new bottom and then full blast up. I got caught myself but I’m still slightly up in it.
The GBPAUD started up and then went mostly down during the day. It is still up for the day since it took a major jump up at the opening. The volume is average so not muc…
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OneGoodTrade 19 Apr.

Please take a look at my blog for a description of the challenges I was having with VSA. Do you have same issues?

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EURUSD

fjollon Posted 17 Apr.  in #Trader's blog
I have been looking at the EURUSD and from what I can see we will get a minor movement down from where we are now. The volume was a bit higher this week compared to the last up-week tow weeks ago. I would guess that we get two more weeks down in the pair before any up-move is to be expected.
We had a nice down-move Wednesday on high volume and the up-move on Friday was not much to talk about and the volume was weak. I believe we will get a continuation on the down-move already on Monday. I beli…
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OneGoodTrade 17 Apr.

If you don't mind I'll ask you a question. What if the down move from Wednesday on high volume means that whatever was sold, someone else stepped in and bought it. Otherwise if there would have been high volume and no buyers euro would have crashed. Let's compare it with a Black Friday sales for electronics...price drops, high volume of buyers step in, price rebounds. It's just a question, I am not either bullish or bearish at the moment.

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fjollon 17 Apr.

Good question. Per VSA, that I use mostly, bullish volume is increasing on up-moves and bearish volume is increasing on down-moves. The basic thought is that "the big guys" move the market. If the price fall with increasing volume it would indicate that the big guys are actively trading and pushing the prices lower. If the volume is low it would indicate that the big guys are standing on the side and not are interested in the current move. If the EURUSD goes up on low volume it could then indicate that the big guys want to sell more at higher levels and are just waiting for that to happen.

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OneGoodTrade 18 Apr.

Yes I know, I saw your webinar a few years back and I remembered it and I was wondering how you deal with these VSA problems since you are still using it.

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fjollon 18 Apr.

OK :)

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AUDUSD

fjollon Posted 16 Apr.  in #Trader's blog
The AUDUSD is looking interesting to me. It closed at 0.7719 for the week which is pretty much exactly at the last top set two weeks ago. The volume this week was rather high and was higher than the week of that last top. I believe it will continue up to the next resistance at the top set in May last year around 0.8160. The AUD look strong against the GBP as well and this pair should continue down. The down movement was not very impressive on Friday, so a short recoil wouldn’t shock me.
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Week's over

fjollon Posted 15 Apr.  in #Trader's blog
Lately I’ve been mostly in to the Yen, mostly against the EUR and the GBP. This week the down movement in the EURJPY continued but not by much. The volume is also slightly lower than the previous week and this a sign of lack of supply which might be taken as a sign of strength. I’m not totally sure that this is the case, but if we don’t get a down movement below the last bottom soon I will not be so convinced about the down trends continuation. Next week will show the way I think.
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Still waiting for the Jap.

fjollon Posted 12 Apr.  in #Trader's blog
Today the JPY continued down against both the pound and the Euro. My account has gotten a bit hurt by the development for the week, but there is still some hope. In the graph the JPY still looks good. The main question is how long up this reaction will be before the Yen starts its move up again. The EURJPY went up today on lower volume and there is still a good possibility that we will get a resumption of the down-trend already tomorrow. The GBPJPY has gone up three days now, but each day with e…
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Too trigger happy

fjollon Posted 11 Apr.  in #Trader's blog
Today I was a little too optimistic and went in short in both GBPJPY & EURJPY as soon as I could. The GBPJPY went through its stop, but I have taken a new position in it since I see it as bearish still.
The GBPJPY has actually gone up slightly now two days in a row, but the up-move is very moderate and the volume in the move is declining and I believe therefor that the fall is soon to be resumed. I have of course no guaranty for this but I believe I have the odds on my side.
I also see the EUR…
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Next week

fjollon Posted 10 Apr.  in #Trader's blog
I'm looking around for winners and losers for the week to come. Looking at the USDCHF I can see the same pattern for the USD as I see against the EUR. I believe the limited fall combined with the increased volume (effort) is indicating some weakness for the CHF and strength in the USD. In any trend an increase of volume (effort) should give an increase in the result as well. The slowing down of the fall despite the increased volume indicates that buyers are coming in at these new, more attractiv…
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Outlooks for next week.

fjollon Updated 9 Apr.  in #Trader's blog
EURUSD had a nice bullish move the week before last. This last week it didn't follow through and the up-move stopped off. This is despite an even higher volume than the previous week and I see this as a clear sign of weakness for the EUR. This might very well be the end of the up-trend for the EUR against the USD. I would bet that the top set this week will last for a considerable time. Considering the strength and momentum in the Yen, I would pick the EURJPY as an excellent short for the week (…
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Yen FTW

fjollon Posted 8 Apr.  in #Trader's blog
Today there was a slight up-move in the GBPJPY, but it didn’t have much energy in it and it fell back later during the day. I tried to cash in on the up-move but had to take a minor loss on it. The fact the up-move didn’t materialize despite the hard fall during the week is a signal for continual bearishness as far as I can see. In the weekly graph it was a rather big down-move and the volume was increasing compared to the previous week which gives extra strength to the bearishness. I think we w…
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