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Cable to continue steady rise as the year turns

al_dcdemo Posted 4 Dec. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.3725, Date: 1 von February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Ascending Channel #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Flash Crash #Neutral Boe
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
GBP/USD broke below long-term support line (1.35) in one of the most volatile weeks in the pair's history as U.K. opted out of E.U. Then, a flash-cr…
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al_dcdemo 2 Jan.

UPDATE 11: GBP/USD closed last year just above 1.35. The pair added 50 pips so far today, shrugging off weaker than expected Manufacturing PMI as U.S. dollar weakness continues to play out in the new year. 1.3650 is the next target.

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al_dcdemo 3 Jan.

UPDATE 12: GBP/USD topped out near 1.3610 just before E.U. session commenced. Two weaker than expected PMIs in a row didn't help the pair, which snapped back to 1.35. Possibly also some profit taking ahead of FOMC Minutes in a couple of hours.

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al_dcdemo 14 Jan.

UPDATE 13: GBP/USD surged 200 pips on Friday, closing the week on the highest level since Brexit vote. General U.S. dollar weakness and Spain and Netherlands supporting softer terms for actual Brexit were the main drivers. 1.3835 and 1.40 are the next targets. CPI and Retail Sales reports next week are the key U.K. data releases to watch in the week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 16 Jan.

UPDATE 14: U.K. CPI inflation report for December came in solid. Headline was as expected, core missed by a tick, while retail surprised to the upside. GBP/USD was not impressed and spiked about 20 pips to the downside. Sellers have been active since yesterday, but if 1.3740 - 1.3750 area holds, bulls might get one more shot at 1.3835.

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al_dcdemo 24 Jan.

UPDATE 15: GBP/USD broke above 1.40 yesterday. The big figure level coincides with the topside of the 2017 - 2018 trading channel. That probably means some selling, but a (sharp) spike above the channel top is not off the table. U.K. jobs & wages report later or tomorrow's ECB decision could be a catalyst.

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Cable to extend gains in the weeks ahead

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Nov. as Analysis on GBP/USD, Target: 1.3575, Date: 2 von January, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #GBP/USD #Daily Chart #Ascending Channel #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Flash Crash #Hawkish Boe
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
GBP/USD broke below long-term support line (1.35) in one of the most volatile weeks in the pair's history as U.K. opted out of E.U. Then, a flash-cr…
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al_dcdemo 23 Dec.

UPDATE 8: U.S. dollar ended up higher against yen, marginally lower against franc and lower against other G10 major currencies this week. Even though monetary policy divergence is still in force, some of the recent trades have most certainly been made with convergence, which had already started this year, in mind.

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al_dcdemo 24 Dec.

UPDATE 9: Week ahead could easily end up being the least active week of the year. But otherwise subdued periods have often turned out quite volatile in recent years. "Expect the unexpected" is one saying that is useful to always keep in mind in trading business.

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al_dcdemo 27 Dec.

UPDATE 10: The U.S. dollar started this holiday-shortened week on the back foot. Falling U.S. treasury bond yields and recovery in commodities have been two drivers. Year-end position squaring could result to some messy price action into the end of the week.

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al_dcdemo 30 Dec.

UPDATE 11: U.S. dollar ended this year on a weaker note. The dollar index posted its lowest monthly close since 2014. Expectations of other major central banks following Fed into hawkish direction are beginning to outweigh the still present monetary policy divergence.

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al_dcdemo 2 Jan.

UPDATE 12: GBP/USD closed last year just above 1.35. The pair added 50 pips so far today, shrugging off weaker than expected Manufacturing PMI as U.S. dollar weakness continues to play out in the new year. 1.3650 is the next target.

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Swissie headed towards parity again

al_dcdemo Posted 23 Oct. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9875, Date: 1 von December, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Fake Breakout #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence #Parity Level
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
USD/CHF broke below the trendline drawn off of 2011, 2014, 2015 and 2016 lows (spikes excluded) in May. The pair then broke below 200 week SMA and p…
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al_dcdemo 17 Nov.

UPDATE 6: The U.S. dollar ended the week lower against European currencies and yen, and higher against the commodity bloc. If we look at these currencies from the yield perspective, it was actually a typical risk-off week, albeit with reduced volatility.

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al_dcdemo 22 Nov.

UPDATE 7: USD/CHF started the week on a strong note but then gave back all the gains and is currently holding onto 0.9875 - 0.99 support area. A break below it would probably mean another shot at 0.98 - 0.985. Watch out for SNB Jordan's speech tomorrow. I wonder what would happen if he somehow forgets to mention that the franc is "still overvalued".

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al_dcdemo 23 Nov.

UPDATE 8: FOMC Minutes highlighted the division among officials on inflation outlook, though majority still think the inflation will ultimately pick up. December hike is virtually a done deal but what comes after that will increasingly hinge on inflation progress. U.S. dollar was sold ahead of and after the release.

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al_dcdemo 29 Nov.

UPDATE 9: Progress on U.S. tax reform, better than expected GDP revision and Janet Yellen with some hawkish comments have all been welcomed by U.S. dollar bulls. Yet the currency struggled to make any significant headway today. Markets have continuously underestimated Fed's resolve to normalize rates in this cycle.

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al_dcdemo 1 Dec.

UPDATE 10: As opposed to USD/JPY, USD/CHF hasn't been able to recover from yesterday's fall. With EUR/CHF near the new cycle-high, it shouldn't come as a surprise that Swissie decided to mirror EUR/USD rather than follow risk sentiment. 0.98 is about to get retested.

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0.95 - 0.98 range to contain Swissie in October

al_dcdemo Posted 24 Sep. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9625, Date: 1 von November, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Fake Breakout #Range Trading #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
USD/CHF broke below the trendline drawn off of 2011, 2014, 2015 and 2016 lows (spikes excluded) in May. The pair broke below 200 week SMA and posted…
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al_dcdemo 11 Oct.

UPDATE 4: U.S. dollar has been a laggard so far this week while euro gained some traction after it reclaimed 1.175. That's a recipe for Swiss franc gains while Catalan and North Korea crises still simmer in the background. USD/CHF broke above both 200 DMA and 0.98 last week and touched 2017 trendline but sellers were waiting and took the pair back below both levels. 0.97 is the next target and then 100 and 50 DMA near 0.965. The mentioned 0.98 level should hold while sellers remain in the driver's seat.

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al_dcdemo 12 Oct.

UPDATE 5: As expected, there was nothing shocking in the Minutes of the most recent FOMC meeting. Division between those who believe that inflation is low due to transitory factors and those who think it's just a new normal, is nothing new but the market seemed to take this as a mildly dovish sign. U.S. dollar has already been weakening this week and, after a minor whipsaw, prices just continued on the path of least resistance. December hike from the Fed is pretty much priced in at this point. The focus is on inflation and tax reform, for clues as to what comes beyond that.

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al_dcdemo 13 Oct.

UPDATE 6: Earlier today a combo of U.S. inflation and retail sales reports for September was published. Inflation indicators came in somewhat weaker than expected but mostly higher than in August while retail sales were better than expected. Market focus was on inflation and initial reaction was to sell the U.S. dollar. Moves stalled after 50 - 70 pips and later reversed to various extents across dollar pairs as traders digested otherwise solid reports. The dollar will close the week lower against all major currencies.

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al_dcdemo 21 Oct.

UPDATE 7: U.S. dollar was the winner of this week. Solid inflation report last week and renewed prospects for a successful tax reform have been the fundamental drivers. Technically, 91 appears to have been more than just a short-term lower in the U.S. dollar index, with 95 the next target. 10-year U.S. treasury yield closed the week on its highs, just below the important 2.4% level, of which Bill Gross says is a trend-changing point. Apart from ECB and BOE next week, one of the most important events to watch out for is nomination of the, probably new, Fed Chair.

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al_dcdemo 27 Oct.

UPDATE 8: Cautious tones from ECB and BOC, weak Australian inflation one side and progress in U.S. politics and much better than expected Advance GDP reading on the other one were among the drivers of major currency pairs this week. BOE is expected to hike next week but it will be a one-off for now. The U.S. dollar was mostly bought up until around the time Europe started heading for the pub. Rumor of Trump leaning toward Powell as the next Fed chair sparked a bout of profit-taking. The dollar ended the week higher against every major currency bar yen.

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USD/CHF to remain range-bound for now

al_dcdemo Posted 25 Aug. as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9725, Date: 2 von October, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Range Trading #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence #Fake Breakdown
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Swissie broke below the trendline drawn off of 2011, 2014, 2015 and 2016 lows (spikes excluded) in May. The pair broke below 200 week SMA and posted…
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al_dcdemo 16 Sep.

UPDATE 7: It was a positive week for the U.S. dollar, which closed higher against most major currencies. By far the best performer was British pound, which rallied on a hawkish shift from the BOE. New Zealand dollar closed marginally higher after some election polls indicated continuation of the status quo. Following weekly close below strong support at 108.10, yen reversed sharply and ended the week above 110.50. Next week's main event is FOMC meeting at which the committee is widely expected to announce balance sheet adjustment plan. Forward guidance on rates will be watched closely as well.

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al_dcdemo 20 Sep.

UPDATE 8: Fed remains on track with monetary policy. Balance sheet adjustment will start in October. Most members are expecting another hike this year. Three more hikes are projected for 2018. Neutral rate was downgraded to 2.8% from 3.0%. The market clearly expected something less hawkish from them. The dollar rallied across the board but the rally run out of steam after 100 - 150 pips of gains. Any further gains may not last because, fundamentally, nothing really changed today.

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al_dcdemo 27 Sep.

UPDATE 9: There appears to have been some progress on the U.S. tax reform but it is all words so far. Trump hasn't managed to repeal and replace Obamacare but maybe he could gather sufficient support for lowering some taxes. USD/CHF made another attempt at the strong resistance area at 0.975 - 0.98 this afternoon but pulled back sharply. That area is backed by descending 2016 - 2017 trendline and 200 DMA. 0.97 is the initial support and then 0.965.

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al_dcdemo 1 Oct.

UPDATE 10: It seems that U.S. dollar finally found some traction. A rise in bond yields after more hawkish than expected FOMC last week is one part of the story. The other is that despite all difficulties in passing new healthcare bill, U.S. tax reform may prove to be a success for Administration. In any case, market got ahead of itself on the convergence trade and what we are seeing now is probably just a healthy retracement and not an outright reversal. Another supportive factor for the dollar is that any weakness in September data will be dismissed due to hurricane impact.

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al_dcdemo 2 Oct.

UPDATE 11: The pair opened around Friday's closing levels and headed higher first thing in the morning but the rally stalled right around my prediction target of 0.9725 before pulling back. Range trading is the name of the game still and any serious attempt at 0.9750 - 0.98 resistance area will probably require cooperation from EUR/USD bears. All in all, I didn't get the price path quite right in this forecast period but, if I exclude those two spikes below 0.95, I was fairly close. The pair was trading some 20 pips off my target at the end of the period.

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USD/CHF to continue to drift lower

al_dcdemo Posted 25 July as Analysis on USD/CHF, Target: 0.9425, Date: 1 von September, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #USD/CHF #Breakdown #Downtrend #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Monetary Policy Divergence
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Swissie broke below the trendline drawn off of 2011, 2014, 2015 and 2016 lows (spikes excluded) in May. The pair broke below 200 week SMA and posted…
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al_dcdemo 19 Aug.

UPDATE 6: The week was to some extent a reversal of last week's risk-off moves. Canadian and Australian dollars were beneficiaries with yen and franc recording just marginal losses. It was not a good week for European currencies. Pound was the loser of the week while euro remains to be buoyed by dip buyers. Next week will be a quiet one data-wise. All eyes will be on Jackson Hole Symposium at the end of the week, which will feature speeches by Yellen and Draghi. Rumours go that the ECB president will avoid talking monetary policy. That should increase volatility if he does say something.

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al_dcdemo 24 Aug.

UPDATE 7: Price action has been pretty sedate so far this week with most major currencies sitting near the middle of their weekly ranges. Euro and Canadian dollar are the only two that are marginally better than the U.S. dollar. There has been a little bit more action in the New Zealand dollar but selling stalled ahead of the strong support at 0.72. Tomorrow could prove to be the most lively day of the week with German Ifo Business Climate, U.S. (Core) Durable Goods Orders and Day 2 of the Jackson Hole Symposium which will bring Fed Chair Yellen and ECB President Draghi speeches.

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al_dcdemo 26 Aug.

UPDATE 8: Speeches by Yellen and Draghi at Jackson Hole Symposium largely met expectations. Yellen didn't even talk about monetary policy while Draghi avoided giving any new information on what ECB may do in autumn. Lack of hawkish clues from Yellen were enough to send the U.S. dollar lower across the board and then later some upbeat comments from Draghi (even though he warned about inflation not yet being self-sustained) propelled the euro to a new two-year high. Yen, pound and Australian dollar were flat on the week while New Zealand dollar was the laggard.

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al_dcdemo 31 Aug.

UPDATE 9: U.S. dollar index broke to the lowest level since 2015 on Monday before staging a sharp pullback. That coincided with euro breaking above 1.20 and 2012 low (1.2040) and franc below 0.95. Yen was once again contained by the strong support at 108. Kiwi is out of favour ahead of N.Z. general election. Canadian dollar sold off hard yesterday but already recouped all losses and some after strong Q2 GDP figures. Australian dollar has been the least volatile of the bunch but with some impressive reversals. NFP report tomorrow will be a nice finale to this exciting week.

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al_dcdemo 1 Sep.

UPDATE 10: U.S. labour market report for August fell short of expectations on most metrics. August is historically weak with regard to NFP figure but Wednesday's strong ADP figure gave U.S. dollar bulls some hope that this time was different. It wasn't and the immediate reaction was to sell the dollar. The report itself was not great but was solid enough and subsequent price action seemed to agree. The dollar ended the week higher against euro, franc, yen and New Zealand dollar, and lower against pound, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar.

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Aussie to continue its steady climb

al_dcdemo Posted 23 Feb. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7775, Date: 3 von April, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Daily Chart #Bounce #Supply Zone #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Relatively High Yield
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Aussie's attempt to crack the strong supply zone between 0.77 and 0.785 in November has been deflected by the intersection of 2013 - 2016 trendline …
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al_dcdemo 18 Mar.

UPDATE 6: As widely expected, the FOMC hiked federal funds rate corridor by 0.25%. It was a "dovish hike", accompanied by caution on the part of the committee and the governor Janet Yellen. Despite that, the tightening cycle will continue at a gradual pace and market currently expects two more hikes this year. U.S. dollar sold off in response but I don't think the weakness will last. Lower-yielding currencies in particular seem vulnerable as the U.S. dollar bulls will inevitable return. However, the period of exceptionally low global interest rates may be drawing to an end.

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al_dcdemo 25 Mar.

UPDATE 7: The dollar recorded another mixed week. Its losses were the most pronounced against lower-yielding currencies while it ended the week higher against the commodity block. In other markets, oil fell as gold rose which may be indicative of traders adjusting for a somewhat weaker recovery and a shallower tightening path. U.S. Administration pulled back from its attempt to repeal Obamacare on Friday and said they will instead focus on tax reform. That adds some uncertainty and, likely, volatility to the quarter-end flow driven week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 28 Mar.

UPDATE 8: Major currencies started the week on a firm footing, particularly against the U.S. dollar. The reserve currency fell in response to Obamacare vote failure which means that the Administration will have more difficulties implementing its reforms. Euro trade above 200 DMA yesterday for a couple of hours before pulling back. Yen tested 110 around the same time but it too recovered to be back above 110.5. Pound rose to the highest (1.2615) since early February. More short-covering is expected as Article 50 gets triggered tomorrow. Commodity currencies look soggy.

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al_dcdemo 2 Apr.

UPDATE 9: The correction in the dollar that gained pace after the dovish hike by the Fed appears to have stalled, despite signs that U.S. Administration will have tough time enacting some of its promised reforms. U.S. dollar rose the most against euro and franc but recorded only modest gains compared to yen and antipodean dollars. Pound and Canadian dollar were holding its own, both finishing a tad higher. In the week ahead, FOMC Meeting Minutes may reveal some detail behind the March's decision. Most Fed officials have continued to be hawkish though.

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al_dcdemo 4 Apr.

UPDATE 10: RBA left cash rate at the record low of 1.5%, which was widely expected. The bank highlighted soft labour market, slow wage growth and low inflation. It urged lenders to step up reforms to address risks associated with high and rising levels of indebtedness. A dovish statement. Aussie dollar fell 20 pips immediately and another 20 pips in the first two hours after the release. 0.7550 (200 DMA, mid March consolidation) is the initial support before stronger one near 0.75 (100 DMA, March low). 0.7585 (March 28th low) is the first resistance.

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Will Aussie finally break to the upside?

al_dcdemo Posted 26 Jan. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7625, Date: 1 von March, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Daily Chart #Bounce #Supply Zone #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Relatively High Yield
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart

Aussie's attempt to crack the strong supply zone between 0.77 and 0.785 has been deflected by the intersection of 2013 - 2016 trendline and 2011 - …
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al_dcdemo 11 Feb.

UPDATE 6: U.S dollar rose against most of the major currencies last week. It snapped the multi-week decline against euro, franc and New Zealand dollar. Gains were more modest against yen, Canadian dollar and pound. Australian dollar was the only major currency to record a narrow win. Unless Trump starts pushing in the direction of a weak dollar policy, and perhaps even, the dollar should strengthen against low-yielders over the medium term. That said, it will be difficult to meet many market participants' expectations of at least two rate hikes by Fed this year.

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al_dcdemo 18 Feb.

UPDATE 7: It was another week of relatively tight ranges. With exceptions of yen and maybe pound, major currencies ended the week pretty much where they started. There's still a lot of uncertainty regarding tax cuts and fiscal stimulus in the U.S. but inflation is on the rise and Fed rate hikes are on the way. One thing that keeps bulls cautious is the Administration's remarks about too strong a dollar and Trump's comments regarding a "level playing field for currencies". The other one is simply expectations of reflation with flows into riskier assets and currencies.

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al_dcdemo 25 Feb.

UPDATE 8: Indecision in markets continues. Major currencies mostly closed in the middle of their tight ranges. A mild risk-off has been notable with the yen buying gaining traction, in part due to French election hedging. Speculators are building longs in commodity currencies and covering shorts in low-yielders bar the euro. The main event in the week ahead is U.S. president Trump's speech to Congress, in which he is expected to announce his "phenomenal tax plan". Failure to meet market's expectations could see the dollar sell-off hard.

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al_dcdemo 28 Feb.

UPDATE 9: Major currencies opened the week on a similar note that they ended the last one. The U.S. dollar started on the back foot but stormed back later in the day. Month-end flows and some position-squaring ahead of the important Trump speech tomorrow could be in part responsible for this. Euro, yen, cable and Canadian dollar have seen the most activity while franc and antipodean dollars have traded in tighter ranges. AUD/USD rally looks like it's running out of steam but it may just be reaccumulation before another leg higher.

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al_dcdemo 1 Mar.

UPDATE 10: Australian GDP came in much better than expected as the country avoided a technical recession by a wide margin. Despite that, Aussie has been looking soggy. The reason for that is U.S. dollar strength as Fed speakers ramped up probability of a March hike yesterday. U.S. president Trump addressed the Congress overnight and, even though he didn't reveal much of the details on reforms, was quite constructive. The pair didn't quite retest levels below 0.75 last month but did top out near 0.7750 and is about to finish fairly close to the prediction target.

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Kiwi to head lower in January

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Dec. as Analysis on NZD/USD, Target: 0.6825, Date: 1 von February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #Daily Chart #NZD/USD #Rising Channel #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Neutral Rbnz #U S Election
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Kiwi bottomed in August 2015 and has been mostly contained in a rising channel. Just as 50 day SMA crossed above 100 day SMA, the pair broke below t…
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al_dcdemo 21 Jan.

UPDATE 5: The U.S. dollar generally moved lower against the major currencies this week. The exceptions were the yen, which was sold on rising U.S. bond yields, and the Canadian dollar which went down on BOC Poloz's remark that a rate cut remains on the table. The best performer was the pound, which rallied after May's soothing rhetoric on what was previously viewed as a "hard" Brexit. Donald Trump officially became the 45th president of the United States on Friday. His first actions will be the market's focus in the week ahead.

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al_dcdemo 23 Jan.

UPDATE 6: Sentiment from the last week continues as U.S. dollar starts the week on the back foot. What started as a normal pullback appears to be morphing into a medium-term correction. Three rate hikes this year, as some Fed officials have been touting, seem a bit far-fetched. I'm thinking two at the most which may be closer to what the majority of market participants expect. Losses against the yen and the pound are the most pronounced today but the dollar has started to claim back some ground it had lost during the Asian session.

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al_dcdemo 28 Jan.

UPDATE 7: It was a lacklustre week for the dollar but the corrective momentum appears to have run out of steam, particularly against the euro, the franc and the yen. Commodity currencies generally performed better but the Australian dollar is finding it diffucult to sustain gains above 0.75. The pound crossed 100 DMA for the first time since the Brexit vote. Next week will be a big one with three central bank meetings (Fed, BOJ, BOE) and plenty of U.S. data, including Nonfarm Payrolls. Trump's actions will remain closely monitored.

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al_dcdemo 30 Jan.

UPDATE 8: U.S. president Donald Trump issued an executive order on immigration late on Friday (early Saturday in Europe). The order led to some chaos in airports in the United States and overseas, and prompted protests and legal action. The dollar gapped lower at the open and continued to trade south in the first part of the Asian session. The impact was most visible in the risk sensitive yen while the antipodean dollars were barely moved due to Chinese Lunar New Year holidays. Cable rose about 60 pips but stalled ahead of the big figure at 1.26.

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al_dcdemo 1 Feb.

UPDATE 9: New Zealand quarterly Employment Change came in as expected, at 0.8%. Unemployment Rate rose to 5.2% on the back of higher Participation Rate (70.5%). Labour Cost Index slightly disappointed at 0.4%. Kiwi added nearly five cents from the low of 0.6860 in late December and pulled back nearly a full cent after the release of otherwise solid labour market data. Profit-taking after yesterday's surge to 0.7350 and ahead of the FOMC might have been a bigger factor.

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Aussie testing the long term trendline

al_dcdemo Posted 30 Dec. as Analysis on AUD/USD, Target: 0.7225, Date: 1 von February, 12:00 GMT  in #Technical analysis #AUD/USD #Daily Chart #Supply Zone #Weekly Chart #Technical Tools #Balanced Positioning #Relatively High Yield #Trendline Area
Technical Tools
Support and resistance (S/R). Price levels, trendlines and Fibonacci retracements. Price action, candlestick and chart patterns. Simple moving averages (SMA). Commitments of traders (COT) indicator, which displays speculative positioning in FX futures market, used as a proxy for speculative positioning in spot FX market.
Weekly Chart
Aussie's attempt to crack strong supply zone between 0.77 and 0.785 was deflected by the intersection of 2013 - 2016 trendline and 2011 - 2016 suppo…
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al_dcdemo 16 Jan.

UPDATE 5: Major currency pairs opened with gaps. The U.S. dollar generally opened higher, up 10 to 35 pips. The exception is the yen, which gapped about 10 pips higher, in a risk-off fashion. The outlier is the pound which opened 180 pips lower after the prospect of a hard Brexit came again to the fore over the weekend. It's a calendar-heavy week ahead, which features central bank meetings from the ECB and the BOC plus speeches from Carney, May and Yellen and other Fed officials. We'll see whether the U.S. dollar correction will continue or the bullish trend will reassert itself.

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al_dcdemo 21 Jan.

UPDATE 6: U.S. dollar generally moved lower against the major currencies this week. The exceptions were the yen, which was sold on rising U.S. bond yields, and the Canadian dollar which went down on BOC Poloz's remark that a rate cut remains on the table. The best performer was the pound, which rallied after May's soothing rhetoric on what was previously viewed as a "hard" Brexit. Donald Trump officially became the 45th president of the United States on Friday. The first of his actions will be the market's focus in the week ahead.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 23 Jan.

UPDATE 7: Sentiment from the last week continues as the U.S. dollar starts the week on the back foot. What started as a normal pullback appears to be morphing into a medium-term correction. Three rate hikes this year, as some Fed officials have been touting, seem a bit far-fetched. I'm thinking two at the most which may be closer to what majority of market participants expect. Losses against the yen and the pound are the most pronounced today but the dollar has started to claim back some ground it had lost during the Asian session.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 28 Jan.

UPDATE 8: It was a lacklustre week for the U.S. dollar but the corrective momentum appears to have run out of steam, particularly against the euro, the franc and the yen. Commodity currencies generally performed better but the Australian dollar is finding it diffucult to sustain gains above 0.75. The pound regained 100 DMA for the first time since the Brexit vote. Next week will be a big one with three central bank meetings (Fed, BOJ, BOE) and plenty of U.S. data, including Nonfarm Payrolls. Trump's actions will remain closely monitored.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 30 Jan.

UPDATE 9: U.S. president Trump issued an executive order on immigration late on Friday (early Saturday in Europe). The order led to some chaos in airports in the United States and overseas, and prompted protests and legal action. The dollar gapped lower at the open and continued to trade south in the first part of the Asian session. The impact was most visible in the risk sensitive yen while the antipodean dollars were barely moved due to Chinese Lunar New Year holidays. The pound rose about 60 pips but stalled ahead of the big figure at 1.26.

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