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The State of US Labor Market

Daytrader21 Posted 3 Apr.  in #Trader's blog #Nfp #Inflation #Unemployment #Fed #Liquidity #Seasonality Pattern #Us Labor Market
Going into today's NFP release there is a rumors going on around the markets that NFP figures will be well below consensus. Over the past few months March payrolls have missed on 6 of the last 7 reports this shows a strong seasonality pattern. Since FED has removed "patience" from their
statement the market is more sensitive to the job report as market participants will beat on a rate hike sooner/later depending if the figures comes strong/weaker.
We have to keep in mind that today is holida…
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Gold Down-Channel

Daytrader21 Updated 26 Jan.  in #Trader's blog #Inflation #Gold #Snb #Deflation #Channel #Momentum #Downtrend #Seasonality Pattern

Last time I was speaking about Gold it was trading near an important inflection point, see more here: Gold Inflection Point
Even thought I was drawing the point that the probability suggest we should continue lower, I have also been advice if we broke the trend-line that connects the 2012 highs we should take the breakout with a long position. The initial breakout lack momentum but only after SNB decision to abandon the 1.2000 EUR/CHF floor, Gold started to gain momentum.
…
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SalviLeana avatar
SalviLeana 26 Jan.

Great job :)

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 26 Jan.

SalviLeana Merci bien :)

Olga18375 avatar
Olga18375 31 Jan.

Good luck!!!

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NFP - The State of the US Labor Market

Daytrader21 Posted 9 Jan.  in #Trader's blog #Nfp #Volatility #Inflation #Unemployment Rate #Whipsaw #Us Labor Market
The market has been exceptionally active since beginning of the year. This higher volatility is not exclusively showing up only on the FX market as other assets classes are exhibiting the same kind of volatility. This higher volatility are having an impact on how the market interprets the economic data as they become more important and the market more sensitive to any deviation from market forecasts.
Even thought NFP is an important market mover this volatility environment makes it even more imp…
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Silver First target Hit. Gold heading towards $900

Daytrader21 Posted 4 Nov.  in #Trader's blog #Qe #Inflation #Gold #Silver #Descending Triangle
Silver and gold have been on tears this week and it comes as no surprise here as the Fed finally has put an end to the almighty QE program. Silver has been hitting my first target of $16.66 projected by the October 2011-April 2013 rectangle pattern (see Figure 1). You can check out my last article about silver through my blog history.
Figure 1. Silver Weekly Chart

It is no surprise that after Silver broke last month key support level of $18.20 it was just a matter of time for gold to follow suit…
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Gold Price Action Reminiscence of 2013

Daytrader21 Posted 3 Oct.  in #Trader's blog #USD #Price Action #Qe #Inflation #Gold #Fed #Silver #Fractal #Rates Normalization

If you haven't seen up until now my last update on Silver I strongly suggest to check it out here: Metals Outlook. Silver Leading The Way Down because that's key to understand why gold is going to follow silver and break lower.
In my last update about gold, and you can check that blog post here:Gold Double Inverted H&S Bottom? I was arguing that on the daily chart we may be developing an inverted H&S pattern which was never confirmed as we need a break of the neck-line. Howe…
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VictoriaVika 3 Oct.

Fell down each single day here, in my country... Gold price suppression is undertaken through naked shorting of the metal by bullion banks?

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ECB On The Spotlight

Daytrader21 Posted 2 Oct.  in #Trader's blog #Ecb #Qe #Inflation #EUR/USD #Mario Draghi #Tltro #Abs #Ecb Balance Sheet
In today's ECB meeting Mario Draghi will give more details on the ABS program and covered bond purchase programme, as this has been already announced in September meeting.
Also in regard to the TLTRO, ECB will be in waiting mode and wait for the December auction in order to asses the success of the programme so it may be the case there will be no new step taken, this year, towards QE. but this is just my assumption and interpretation of current data and anything can be possible. Right now it's …
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verindur 2 Oct.

ECB minting money with mouth.)))))))))

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Jackson Hole Symposium. Why it Matter?

Daytrader21 Posted 21 Aug.  in #Trader's blog #Yellen #Inflation #Interest Rates #Unemployment Rate #Jackson Hole #Labor Market
Jakson Hole is an economic symposium conference that has been hold each year since 1978 by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. For more than three decades this economic symposium has been gathering together Finance ministers, central bank presidents and academics from around the world. Jackson Hole theme for Aug. 21-23 2014 will be "Re-Evaluating Labor Dynamics".
 Unfortunately many Wall Streeters and other private-sector economists have not been invited anymore signaling a shift from prev…
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taxi_driver 21 Aug.

Thanks for posting!

ANABEVZ avatar
ANABEVZ 21 Aug.

interesting..

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Short GBP/AUD. Trade Explanation

Daytrader21 Updated 16 Aug.  in #Trader's blog #Boe #GBP/AUD #Fundamentals #Inflation #Dovish #Wadge Growth
Since it's weekend I just want to take the time and cover in details my latest trades and give you more explanation behind those trades.Today I'm going to start with my short GBP/AUD trade and tomorrow I'll explain my long EUR/AUD which was a loss.
Currency Pair: GBP/AUD
Side: Short
Amount: 5Mill
Time Frame: 1h
Open Price: 1.807985
Close Price: 1.79997
PnL: +80pips
Open date: 13.08.2014 09:30:47
Close Date: 13.08.2014 09:48:37
Reasons Behind the trade: This trade was based just on fundamenta…
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ECB versus NFP

Daytrader21 Updated 3 July  in #Trader's blog #Ecb #Nfp #Volatility #Inflation #Monetary Policy #Adp #Risk Event #Atr
You don't get to often to have the ECB monetary policy announcement and the NFP report scheduled on the same day, but due to the fact that Friday is 4th of July, thus a holiday, the NFP figures are going to be released today.
Market expectation for both of this 2 risk events are very grounded as investors are not expecting for big surprises coming out today. Typically volatility drops off heading into 4th of July.
ECB has already announced in the previous meeting some monetary easing measur…
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ECB Ready for "Prime Time"

Daytrader21 Posted 4 June  in #Trader's blog #Ecb #Inflation #Interest Rates #Mario Draghi #Deposit Rates #Credit Easing #Ltro #Smp
Tomorrow's ECB meeting can be the most important event of the year for euro as low inflation threats can be an obstacle to EU recovery.
The President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi has already signaled the fact that ECB is ready to take action at today's meeting including both conventional and unconventional measures.
What to expect from tomorrow's ECB meeting?

Although the stimulus expectation has certainly picked up, however we can't look at just one aspect, and interest rates…
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mag avatar
mag 4 June

Watching Mr. Draghi

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 4 June

mag  everyone will be with their eyes on Draghi tomorrow. HelgaPehkel Neither of that, it's hard to believe we're going to move 800 pips :) just based on tomorrow ECB new market policy. However as far as I'm concern the risk is for a downside movement, but it can be a tricky one and it depends on how powerful the credit easing would be, otherwise we can have a big whipsaw, first to the downside and than a squeeze rally.

HelgaPehkel avatar
HelgaPehkel 4 June

Of course, I talked about the long term)) not only about tomorrow))

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 4 June

HelgaPehkel Long term I'm bearish on EUR/USD. Check out my article from last month, I've been written in details what are my expectation. I hope it will help.

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Neu_spir8 6 June

Didn't see this post till now, man you're good.

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