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RBA upbeat at today's decision

al_dcdemo Przesłąno 5 Gru  w #Trader's blog #AUD/USD #Rba Decision #Dip Buyers #D1 Chart #Inflation Outlook
RBA held cash rate once again at the record low of 1.50%. Rate statement, however, was fairly upbeat. The bank strengthened its view on inflation and also softened its language on exchange rate, cutting both paragraphs in half. This should be enough to keep dip buyers involved.
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Kiwi dollar testing 2016/2017 support area

al_dcdemo Przesłąno 14 Lis  w #Trader's blog #NZD/USD #Momentum #Support Area #Dip Buyers #D1 Chart #Stop Loss Selling
NZD/USD slipped 50 pips overnight on no particular news. Higher timeframe momentum resumed, sending the pair down to test 2016/2017 support in 0.68 - 0.685 area. If the area gives way, we could see some stop-loss selling but I'd expect dip buyers to start emerging near 0.675.
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EURo pauses after cautious ECB

al_dcdemo Przesłąno 12 Cze  w #Trader's blog #Ecb #Support #Resistance #EUR/USD #Dip Buyers #D1 Chart #Inflation Forecasts
UPDATE 6: ECB acted as expected last week and removed phrase "or lower" from the line "interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time". The bank remains cautious as they lowered growth and inflation forecasts for the year.
The market expected a little bit more hawkishness from them and subsequently sold off. Dip buyers have been quick to step in however and push the pair back above 1.12. 1.11 - 1.115 should hold if this rally is to continue. 1.13 is the next t…
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EUR/USD set for another leg higher

al_dcdemo Przesłano 30 Gru jako Analiza EUR/USD, Cel: 1.1125, Data: 1 z Luty, 12:00 GMT  w #Technical analysis #Reversal #EUR/USD #Bullish Bias #Downtrend #Channel Line #Dip Buyers #Sideways Market #Upward Sloping Channel #Long Term Trendline
Monthly chart
The pair has been in a downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the longer-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, a series of important levels gave way, including 2012, 2010 and 2005 lows. The levels were falling like dominoes before the rout finally stalled near the declining channel-line drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows and the long term trendline that connects 1985 and 2000 lows.
Weekly chart
The low was put in place at 1.0462 after stops below 1.05 we…
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al_dcdemo 11 Sty

UPDATE 5: There was quite a lot of movement for a Monday right after the open. Moves across major pairs were similar with the dollar gaining against higher yielding currencies and losing against lower yielding ones. The moves were then more or less reversed. Euro broke above the descending trendline drawn off of mid and late December highs (~1.0935) and previous week high (~1.0945) but stalled and reversed ahead of Daily Resistance 1 (~1.1970). It has pulled back almost all the way to the big figure (1.09).

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al_dcdemo 13 Sty

UPDATE 6: Stabilization in the yuan and some better data from China have been enough to underpin risk sentiment that has been improving since the beginning of the week. That weighed on the euro, which lost about 50 pips against the dollar overnight. The pair is holding above 50 DMA and a cluster of support levels near 1.08. Late U.S. session highs (1.0850 - 1.0870) shall now contain upticks, all things being equal.

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al_dcdemo 18 Sty

UPDATE 7: Currencies opened the week with with risk-off gaps: euro, franc and yen gained about 10 pips, pound lost a couple of pips while commodity currencies lost 20-60 pips. All gaps have been already closed as risk sentiment improved. U.S. banks will be closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Day - that means thin liquidity and tight ranges but not without a possibility of an outsized move.

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al_dcdemo 25 Sty

UPDATE 8: Major currencies opened with gaps again but this time around with smallish ones in what appears to be the quietest open so far this year. Improvement in risk sentiment seemed to come after China managed to stabilize its currency and stock market. Given the magnitude of the bounce in stocks, oil and risk sensitive currency pairs it seems that an interim bottom may be in place. However, all macroeconomic themes are still ongoing, so it may be too early to speak of a reversal.

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al_dcdemo 26 Sty

UPDATE 9: Euro refused to follow through after last week's post-ECB action. Draghi's words certainly were a tune to bears' ears but he definitely lost some credibility after the bank failed to meet market expectations in December. But the main thing that has been holding the pair afloat has been a sell-off in risk assets. The pair closed above 50 DMA yesterday but that may not mean a lot since it is still contained in 1.08 - 1.10 range. The top of the range is reinforced by the 2014 - 2015 trendline and 100 DMA.

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EUR/USD may pull back ahead of ECB and FOMC

al_dcdemo Przesłano 21 Lis jako Analiza EUR/USD, Cel: 1.0975, Data: 1 z Styczeń, 12:00 GMT  w #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Breakdown #Bounce #Downtrend #Bearish Bias #Channel Line #Dip Buyers #Upward Sloping Channel #Divergent Monetary Policies
Monthly chart
The pair has been in downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the longer-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, a series of important levels gave way, including 2012, 2010 and 2005 lows. The levels were falling like dominoes before the rout finally stalled near the declining channel-line drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows and the long term trendline that connects 1985 and 2000 lows.
Weekly chart
The low was put in place at 1.0462 after stops below 1.05 wer…
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al_dcdemo 4 Gru

UPDATE 5: ECB cut the deposit rate to -0.30% (from -0.20%) and extended QE program to March 2017 (from September 2016) which was well short of expectations. Given the reaction it seems that the market might have been pricing in a cut to -0.40% and an expansion of QE. Long term trendline, which connects 1985, 2000 and 2015 lows, held once again. 450+ pip rally stalled ahead of 50 DMA and 50.0% retracement of the last downswing. We'll see what the Fed will do but parity party seems ever more elusive.

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al_dcdemo 11 Gru

UPDATE 6: Euro rallied in the first part of the week and gained above 1.10 for the first time in a good month. The pair stalled between 200 DMA (currently ~1.1030) and 100 DMA (currently ~1.1060) and has been backing and filling since. 1.0850 - 1.0900 shall hold if the post-ECB upswing is to continue. 50 DMA (currently ~1.0950) shall cap it in the meantime. If not, then the momentum of the move may be stronger that it appears at the moment.

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al_dcdemo 14 Gru

UPDATE 7: Current equilibrium level in the Euro appears to be just below the big figure (~1.0980), basically around the mid point of the three-day consolidation which resembles a symmetrical triangle. The bottom of the pattern is found near 1.0950 and the top around 1.1025. In slightly broader terms, there is a support at 1.0925 - 1.0950 and a resistance at 1.1030 - 1.1060. There's possibility of fake breakouts ahead of the FOMC. Though I'd say the risk is to the upside, at least until 76.4% retracement of the last D1 downswing (~1.1250) is hit.

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al_dcdemo 28 Gru

UPDATE 8: This week is probably the lightest one for the year with regard to economic data and certainly the most holiday-packed. Lower-tier European data, released mainly on Wednesday, most likely won't have any impact. U.S. will publish CB Consumer Confidence, Unemployment Claims and Chicago PMI, which may contribute to some volatility in these thin conditions.

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al_dcdemo 29 Gru

UPDATE 9: Last two weeks of a year are known to be the quietest in most markets. Low participation means low liquidity and usually low volatility. However, it's easier to move markets in such conditions and if someone decides to execute a big order, the move could be big too. That move is more often than not faded or at least retraced to a great extent as liquidity returns.

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Cable keeps gaining

al_dcdemo Uaktualniono 16 Cze  w #Trader's blog #GBP/USD #Cable #Fomc #Greece #Trading Range #Safe Haven Flows #Dip Buyers
Cable has been incredibly resilient lately and some of that may also be attributed to the safe haven flows due to the ongoing uncertainty regarding Greece. It fell today on weaker than expected inflation report, but buyers were waiting in the dips and soon took the pair to new highs for the day, week and month.
Tomorrow is the FOMC day and the pair will likely remain in this upward grinding trading range at least until then. When it breaks, first stronger support may come in between 1.5450 and 1…
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