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Range Continues to Constrict in the EUR/GBP

fxsurprise8 Przesłano 31 Sie jako Analiza EUR/GBP, Cel: 0.8491, Data: 3 z Październik, 12:00 GMT  w #Technical analysis #GBP #Euro #Volatility #EUR/GBP #Pound #Summer Trading #Range Bound #Atr #Brexit
After a volatile start to the summer (with the Brexit commotion), the EUR/GBP is slowly calming down. Volatility continues to decline. While June had a range of close to 800 pips, in July the low to high movement was only 377 pips. And this month the range dropped even lower to 279 pips. Meanwhile the open to close range is at even smaller at 45 pips. On the chart below we can see volatility declining in the EUR/GBP.
But volatility isn't everything. Currencies can continue to grind higher or lo…
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fxsurprise8 avatar
fxsurprise8 29 Wrz

So far the monthly range stands at only 383 pips. The high stands at 0.8716 while the low is at 0.8333.

Open to close we're at +149 pips. This is a bit higher volatility then I expected.

But even so, we're currently quoted at 0.8649, less then 150 pips away from my target. I just need a few down days to bring me closer to my forecasted price :)

fxsurprise8 avatar
fxsurprise8 30 Wrz

We're seeing small declines today in the EUR/GBP but they're not deep enough to bring me substantially closer to my target.

Today we opened at 0.8651, moved to a high of 0.8661 only to fall to a low of 0.8604 later in the day. We're now trading at 0.8635, still a good 144 pips away from the forecast. I need more GBP strength to nudge the pair closer to the target.

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Slow start to the week

al_dcdemo Uaktualniono 8 Sie  w #Trader's blog #Yellen #EUR/USD #Summer Trading #Jackson Hole #U S Jobs Report #D1 Chart #Antipodean
Major currencies mostly remained in Friday's ranges which were a result of a much better than expected U.S. jobs and wages report. The least action was in the euro while the yen and the antipodean dollars performed better.
Today's markets were reminiscent of subdued summer trading but, as we have seen multiple times in recent months, they never lasted more than a couple of days. I think we won't need to wait until Yellen's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium to get the next big move.
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Slow Markets

Daytrader21 Przesłąno 4 Sie  w #Trader's blog #Summer Trading
I took some dollar short positions yesterday and at one point I was 20k in profit but by the end of the day the market reverse and erased almost all my profits. I'm still in this position but I don't think I want to stay more because during the summer trading conditions there are is not much going on in the markets.
I think I need to take profits at first level of resistance otherwise this thing will happen a lot of the times.
Best Regards,
Daytrader21
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Preparing the Week Ahead

Daytrader21 Przesłąno 2 Sie  w #Trader's blog #USD #Nfp #Summer Trading
Since we're still under summer trading condition my expectations for the coming week are for further range activity with the major currency pairs. Maybe NFP can give us a directional bias for this entire month and we can see where the USD wanna go. Even though in the long term I'm still bullish the dollar in the short-medium term I play the market both ways as so far I don't see any clear sign that the US dollar wants to resume the upward trend.
Maybe September will be the catalyst for the dolla…
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4 Komentarze
WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 2 Sie

You may be right with the upcoming week being slow- thanks for cooling us down:)

WallStreet6 avatar
WallStreet6 2 Sie

I just can't wait to my hands on some pips:)

Berkeley avatar
Berkeley 2 Sie

Good luck buddy ;)

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 3 Sie

WallStreet6 keep in mind I might be wrong:)) Berkeley Nice to see you buddy, good luck to you as well

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EUR/USD to remain range-bound

al_dcdemo Przesłano 30 Lip jako Analiza EUR/USD, Cel: 1.1075, Data: 1 z Wrzesień, 12:00 GMT  w #Technical analysis #EUR/USD #Range #Summer Trading #Bounce #Downtrend #Bearish Bias #Channel Line #Yearly Lows #Data Dependence
Monthly chart:
The pair has been in a downtrend since May 2014. After it broke below the longer-term trendline that supports lows of years 2005, 2010 and 2012, a series of important levels gave way: 50.0% retracement (of the 2000 to 2008 uptrend), 2012 low, 2010 low, 2005 low and 61.8% retracement. The levels were falling like dominoes before the rout finally stopped near the declining channel-line (drawn off 2008 and 2010 lows). Further support comes in at 2003 low (1.0331) and then at 76.4% re…
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al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 10 Sie

UPDATE 4: Next week may well turn out to be one of the most quiet weeks of this summer. Having said that, if the pair continues to gain beyond the trendline drawn off July , August and December 2014 highs (currently near 1.10), the possibility of a larger short covering rally ahead of the September FOMC meeting is not excluded. On the downside, 1.0800 - 1.0850 will have to hold if the pair is to remain in range.

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al_dcdemo 15 Sie

UPDATE 5: The pair trended higher in the first part of the week and then consolidated in the second. It appears to have decisively broken above the trendline drawn off July, August and December 2014 highs. In addition, it broke 100 DMA and then also 50 DMA and closed above both. Despite slightly extended upper tail, weekly candle looks bullish, particularly in regard to the break of the trendline.

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al_dcdemo 16 Sie

UPDATE 6: Flash PMIs from Europe and inflation report from the US are main market moving events on the calendar for the week ahead. Technically, the pair will need to stay above both 50 and 100 DMA, if it wants to maintain bullish bias - any pullback towards 1.10 shall be soaked up quickly. The other, perhaps more probable, scenario is a more ranging-like uptrend with a deeper pullback to 1.0900 - 1.0950.

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al_dcdemo 28 Sie

UPDATE 7: Euro exploded higher on Monday. It rose close to 350 pips from the low of the day, which is the largest daily range since March 18th. It then spent the rest of the week paring gains from the four-day rally. It is back under 1.12  as I type and is poised to close the week near this pivotal level. The result is a big shooting star on the weekly chart.

al_dcdemo avatar
al_dcdemo 29 Sie

UPDATE 8: First week in month is always relevant from the fundamental point of view as we usually get to see a lot of top tier economic data in that period. Week ahead will be particularly important as there's an ECB meeting scheduled too. 50 and 100 DMA, which are currently running just below 1.11, are the support levels to watch in the days ahead. On the topside, 200 DMA is the key level.

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NZD/CAD Summer Rally

Daytrader21 Przesłano 31 Maj jako Analiza NZD/CAD, Cel: 0.8982, Data: 1 z Lipiec, 12:00 GMT  w #Technical analysis #NZD/CAD #Summer Trading #Psychological Number #Seasonality #Support And Resistance
NZD/CAD has the tendencies to rally during summer periods(see Figure 1) or at least to make a pause in the trend and stay inside a range. We can see that right from the first few days of Jun the market is starting to rally and more often it puts in place a major swing low. The seasonality are a strong tool to use but they never must be used alone and in combination with other technical tools, because the seasonality it only gives us the tendencies of what we should expect the marke…
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Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 5 Cze

Update 1: It seems that the market is having another go towards the major support level of 0.8800 which is also the bottom of current range box. As long as this level holds my forecast is still valid 

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Daytrader21 14 Cze

Update 2: Due to recent RBNZ decision to cut rates the technical landscape has changed and right now with a new swing low being put in place , below 8.8600 the flow has been shifted to the downside. In order for this to regain momentum we need a close above 0.8750

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AUD/JPY Never Ending Consolidation

Daytrader21 Przesłano 16 Sie jako Analiza AUD/JPY, Cel: 92.8400, Data: 1 z Październik, 12:00 GMT  w #Technical analysis #AUD/JPY #Consolidation #Elliott Wave #Rectangle Pattern #Summer Trading
AUD/JPY has been trading in a narrow consolidation zone(see Figure 1) for the entire summer period. Most significant movement happened right before the summer when we had a spike lower towards the 93.00 figure and since than the consolidation zone has narrowed even further with 94.40 support zone and 96.40 resistance zone. Current projections should go as this: first we need a break and a close below 94.00 level which is the bottom of this rectangle, followed by another break towards 92.00 level…
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Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 30 Sie

Update 1: It may be the case I'm wrong on this prediction as we broke the upside resistance level at 96.50 and we have retested it and got a rejection signaling buyers are in control

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AUD/CAD Summer Trading Conditions

Daytrader21 Przesłąno 16 Lip  w #Trader's blog #Volatility #AUD/CAD #Elliot Wave #Correction #Summer Trading
Today I want to share a trade pattern idea that I've posted few weeks ago in the Technical Analysis Contest, you can check out that prediction here as well: AUD/CAD Summer Trading Conditions
Since beginning of the year AUD/CAD has been trading in a very consistent and clear way to the upside, without much correction along the way. I suspect this trend will enter in a prolonged pause as we're facingsummer trading condition where volatility dry out and the market is characterized by …
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VictoriaVika avatar
VictoriaVika 18 Lip

well done. Great work

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AUD/CAD Summer Trading Conditions

Daytrader21 Przesłano 15 Cze jako Analiza AUD/CAD, Cel: 1.0140, Data: 1 z Sierpień, 12:00 GMT  w #Technical analysis #Volatility #AUD/CAD #Elliott Wave #Correction #Range #Summer Trading
Since beginning of the year AUD/CAD has been trading in a very consistent and clear way to the upside, without much correction along the way. I suspect this trend will enter in a prolonged pause as we're facing summer trading condition where volatility dry out and the market is characterized by lots of congestion. In Figure 1 we can see how we already are approaching major resistance and how price is contained between to major levels 1.0000 big round number and also big support level and 1.0350 …
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Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 7 Lip

Update 2: Unfortunately we made a new swing low signaling that we may have further downside but if we can get a little momentum upside and a strong close above the psychological round number 1.0000 the bulls can feel safe. Until than next support I see is at 0.9820.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 12 Lip

Update 3: After the break below the  psychological round number 1.0000 we found some strength and we're now back above it with a strong close. this suggest that more strength to follow but first we need a break an close above the next round number 1.01000.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 19 Lip

Update 4: for the past week we further consolidate developing an H&S pattern that can been seen more clearly on the 4h chart. We have support at 1.0040 which should hold, but we also need a break 1.1000 round number and also the neck-line of the H&S pattern for more upside momentum

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 26 Lip

Update 5: WE are only 17 pips from our target and current price structure suggest that we should expect further consolidation during the next week, between the 1.0150 resistance level and 1.0100 support level.

Daytrader21 avatar
Daytrader21 31 Lip

Update 6: There are only left less than 24 hours until the deadline and we're only 3 pips away from our target 1.0140. Based on Elliott Wave we continue down the road on developing only 3 waves price structure as per my indications. Price should be contained in this range until the end of the week so there is a great change we'll see our target hit to the pip. We can use as reference points current day high and low as support and resistance so price should consolidate between 1.0176-1.0130, a 46 pips trading range

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